Fantasy Football NFL Week 4: Players to Adore/ Players to Avoid

New York Giants at Philadelphia

New Eagles Offensive Line Shows Umeniyora Up?

Two bitter NFC East rivals square off Sunday night in what could be dubbed the “Ballerina Bowl” due to LeSean McCoy and Osi Umeniyora’s consistent jawing over the social media airwaves.  These two teams are talented and familiar with each other; meaning this will not likely be a low-scoring game.  The Eagles were drubbed by the Cardinals last week 24-6, with ball security a major issue, stemming from their inability to protect quarterback Michael Vick.  It is hard to see how the Giants defensive line does not offer a clear threat to Vick even finishing the game.  The Giants are coming an extra three days of rest and the Eagles are still banged up at receiver. Luckily Giants corner Corey Webster and safety Antrel Rolle are both banged up as well.  DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin present a good fantasy plays as WR2’s in this game.  Celek could exploit some mismatches with Giants linebackers. The Eagles will still need to run Shady McCoy to keep the Giants from pinning their ears back.

On the Giants side, they are in midseason form on offense-- they put up 36 at Carolina with backups at WR1 and RB1; now Bradshaw and Hakeem Nicks are back.  I would be wary of starting any Giants running back in this one but Victor Cruz is getting his salsa steps ready; he’s a must-start in any format.  Martellus Bennett has shown flashes of being a TE1, so if he’s available off the wire do yourself a favor and snag him.

Adore: Eli Manning, Victor Cruz, Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy

Meh:  Ahmad Bradshaw, Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Andre Brown; Hakeem Nicks, Brent Celek, Martellus Bennett; Giants D

Avoid: Eagles D

New Orleans at Green Bay

Laid A Heck of a Foundation

Two pissed-off teams, that are fading from the ranks of NFC contenders square off at Lambeau Field on Sunday.  The Packers couldn’t hold off the Seahawks pass rush and Drew Brees couldn’t complete a pass in the final quarter as both teams fell last week to Seattle and Kansas City, respectively.  The Saints are allowing a laughable 215 yards rushing a game which negates the good things they’ve done on offense.  Last week they got shredded by Jamaal Charles and Cedric Benson comes into town.  Granted, the Saints have played three teams that have dynamic rushing attacks in the Redskins, Panthers and Chiefs.  By comparison, the Packers don’t put that type of emphasis on running which will probably benefit New Orleans.  For your fantasy team this has the look of a shootout even though the Packers have allowed only 125 yards through the air.  Drew Brees will probably come close to tripling that average; look for the Saints go with plenty of passes to Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles and look to get Pierre Thomas (19 carries for 138 yards) and Mark Ingram  (27 carries for 79 yards) going in the running game.   Lance Moore may be the most productive wideout for the Saints, who have an atypical passing food chain. Devery Henderson typically catches a long pass in these types of contests, but they miss Robert freakin’ Meachem.  He was an efficient blend of Colston and Henderson whose production their other young receivers haven’t been able to reproduce.

The Packers are out-of-sync on offense and fantasy owners everywhere will want a signature Green Bay game with 400 yards from Rodgers and Nelson and Greg Jennings, and even Finley redeeming themselves fantasy-wise.  This version of the Saints defense offers the opportunity.  They’ll be plenty of Green Bay yards in this one.  The Packers have got to get Greg Jennings and Jordy Nelson going—it’s been a lot of dink and dunk.  If Jennings doesn’t turn it up in this game, then I’m starting to regard him as more of a WR2, with his most productive days behind him. Cedric Benson is a decent fantasy play as a RB2, the Saints can’t contain anyone on the ground at this point.  I mean he’s not going to be Ahman Green in his prime, but if he’s a RB2, you can probably squeeze ten points out of him in this matchup—he’s been decent catching the ball.

Adore: Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Cedric Benson, Aaron Rodgers, Darren Sproles

Meh: Jordy Nelson, Jermichael Finley, Marques Colston, Greg Jennings, Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore

Avoid: Packers D, Randall Cobb, Mark Ingram, Saints D (of course)

Carolina at Atlanta

Can't Keep Up With the Joneses

Cam Newton is defending himself against critics questioning his mental toughness this week.  He’s rumored to be undergoing therapy.  Hey, it’s not tricking if you got it.  He’ll need all the help he can get leading up to this Sunday’s matchup against the undefeated Atlanta Falcons.  The Falcons offense has been impressive through Week 3, with fantasy QB1 leader Matt Ryan leading the attack.  However, Carolina and Atlanta both give up well over 100 yards a game rushing, so expect RB2-type fantasy contributions from Michael Turner and Jonathan Stewart (if healthy).  Turner could really benefit from the Panthers rushing defense to rejuvenate his season--in the last four games against Carolina he’s rushed for 394 yards and six touchdowns.  Jacquizz Rodgers may eat into Turner's touches and I suspect Julio Jones will remind us all he’s very much a WR1-fantasy-must-start in this game.  In 2012 venerable Tony Gonzalez has caught more passes than any other Falcon, or tight end in the NFL for that matter, so start him at TE without hesitation.  Roddy White at home is always a good play.  Monitor J-Stew’s health,  and if he can't go, then jump all over DeAngelo Williams as a RB2.

Forget Therapy Cam, This Is What the Doctor Ordered

Cam Newton threw three picks with zero scores his last time at the Georgia Dome and doesn’t appear to mentally be in sync at this point of the season.  However, I would start Newton in this game and give him another opportunity to redeem himself.  It’s a homecoming for Newton, a divisional game, he’s had vocal haters even in Charlotte, and veteran WR Steve Smith was able hopefully to get the quarterback’s mind right during the Giants debacle.  It’s not like he is missing passes—his 63.7% completion rate so far is higher than 2011.  The Panthers tend to start slow, historically. If Newton can pull things together in this game passing, than some fantasy contributions from Brandon LaFell and conversely, Jacquizz Rodgers, would not be outrageous.  Turner is definitely a RB2 now anyway and LaFell is a decent WR3/Flex play.   Newton is almost guaranteed to get you 5-8 points just by running the ball in this game.

Adore: Julio Jones, Roddy White, Matt Ryan, Steve Smith, Cam Newton

Meh: Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner, Brandon LaFell, Greg Olsen, Jonathan Stewart, Jacquizz Rodgers,DeAngelo Williams

Avoid: Mike Tolbert, 

Washington at Tampa Bay

Tampa Will Need to Cover Some Skin(s) For a Change

This is an under-the-radar game with shootout potential mainly because of the two statistically, most generous secondaries in the NFL.  Although the Buccaneers are dead last in offense in the NFL (258 yards per contest) they’ll be going up against a suspect Washington Redskins defense that the Cincinnati Bengals torched last week.  No one has noticed the Bucs ranked 1^st in the league in rushing defense, which is pretty significant considering they were operating such a bush-league run defense last year.   They have shut down the Panthers, Giants, and Cowboys so they’ll be able to contain Alfred Morris; but they’ll have their hands full with Robert Griffin III, however, who has rushed for over 200 yards by himself so far.  Robert Griffin III, because of his dual-threat ability, is a QB1 in this game.  Fred Davis caught 7 for 90 against Cincinnati and is starting to heat up. He’s still a shade under a must-start, but encouraging that his and RG3’s chemistry is building.  The Redskins wideouts, a fast bunch, are tricky fantasy-wise behind Garcon.

On the Bucs side, Freeman and Martin are “meh” but I like Vincent Jackson to carve up the Washington secondary and the Redskins to counter with some deep bombs of their own.  The Bucs have to get their running game on track to set up the aforementioned bombs.  The Redskins best fantasy play will probably be Robert Griffin III. Pierre Garcon coming back (foot) is still questionable which gives him a “Meh” rating. If he plays, be aware he torched the Bucs in Ray Jay last year as a Colt. There may also be a LeGarrette Blount sighting but I wouldn’t play him in any format just yet.  Stay tuned, word is coach Greg Schiano wants more a 1-2 punch at running back (3.6 yards a carry from Martin will do that for ya).

Adore: Vincent Jackson, Robert Griffin

Meh: Josh Freeman, Fred Davis, Buccaneers D/ST, Pierre Garcon, Santana Moss, Doug Martin

Avoid:  Alfred Morris, Redskins D/ST

Fantasy Football NFL Week 4: Running Back Turmoil....Who to Add..Part 2

Well it appears that “Refgate” is going to be resolved but is your running back situation? With so much up in the air due to injuries, and general suckitude you may want to consider these running back stock tips.  The key to building a money-winning fantasy football squad is making sure you have your bread-and-butter guys and then acquire more talent while the “price” is still low.  It’s a lot of guess work and anticipation but man, is it fun when it works out.  I can recall a Chris Johnson (back when he was good) for Jahvid Best deal back in 2010.  Owners tend to overreach in trades, so looking to the waiver wire is generally preferable for greedy owners like myself.  It also takes faith, I remember last year in a league I drafted DeMarco Murray late, only to become impatient and have the awesome pleasure of having him play well for an opposing team. But I digress. Let’s get you up to date on potential breakout running backs, the DeMarco Murrays of 2012,  that may still be out there.

Finally, A Grown Simba

I Need A LeShoure Thing

Besides Mikel LeShoure, there aren’t many must-grab-and-starts out there, but since managing injury replacements gives fantasy owners headaches due to the amount of daily change, you should stop reading NOW and pick up LeShoure.  Ok, you back? Mikel LeShoure of the Detroit Lions has an ideal fantasy situation.  He’s coming off a 100-yard effort against Tennessee (on 26 carries), the Lions starting quarterback is hurt and Kevin Smith, Joique Bell and Jahvid Best are his competitors for touches. Easy!  The Lions have the Vikings up next, who typically are stingy against the run (12^th) but allowed Gore to go for 60 yards on 13 carries—which indicates they are a little more generous in 2012.  Although they racked up 583 yards against the Titans in Week The Lions are little out-of-sync on offense right now, although Shaun Hill is more than a capable backup, they will look to run and when they do set up to pass LeShoure caught all four passes thrown to him.  When Stafford comes back, you will have a running back tied to great passing offense that will be looking to run more, keeping Stafford upright.

This Ryan Equals Change As Well

Ryan Williams:  Splash in The Desert?

Now here is where we look a little further out for some long-term potential.  Ryan Williams, my man from Virginia Tech, has shown signs he’s ready to be the man on a 3-0 Cardinals team that hasn’t scratched the surface of their potential on offense yet.  I like him immensely this week even with Miami on the schedule.  He’s unowned in a lot of leagues so if you are looking for even RB2/3 help, add Williams to your roster.  He’s got quicks catches the ball well out of the backfield, and can block well enough to stay on the field.  Beanie Wells is still there but looking more and more like he will continue to be nicked up.  Williams has his own history with injury but hey, so did /does Jamaal Charles (currently leading the NFL in rushing). I’m serious—I’ve got a thing for smallish backs that can outrun you (before they sign that second contract).   NFL teams are finding out that plodding running backs do serve a purpose down in the red zone, but to keep pace with passing teams running backs need to be able to make plays in space, by putting space between themselves and the defenders.  Ryan Williams has a DeAngelo Williams-type skill set. He probably will never be a 20-25 carries guy, but other than a handful of franchise backs who is? 16 carries for 134 gets you the same amount of points as 30 carries for the same yardage--speed and efficiency, folks.  Ryan Williams will require you to be patient.  He has an injury history that required you to be patient all of 2011, and he was doing the whole CJ2K thing (1 yard per carry) the first two weeks.  But it is my belief that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt actually will start Ryan Williams and not look back as soon as he puts two or three good games together, just like Kevin Kolb.  The Cardinals   hadn’t had any success on the ground until  Williams put up 12 for 83 against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 3.  Beanie Wells is still a concern for carries, but has turf toe which means Williams is definitely plausible as a flex start even against the tough run D of the Miami Dolphins.

Tell Uncle Luke Lamar is in Miami, Too

Miller Time in Miami?

Speaking of the Miami Dolphins, the Reggie Bush situation bears monitoring.  He thinks he is going to play on Sunday against these Arizona Cardinals. He was having a fine day against the Jets and then the knee acts up. The Jets players may have tried to injure him, or not (pass the hot sauce).  His backup, Daniel Thomas, fumbled on a key possession that helped the Jets get back into, and eventually win last Sunday, 23-20.   Third-string Lamar Miller, the homegrown talent and fourth round pick from the University of Miami showed nice burst on a couple carries totaling 48 yards on 9 carries.  He’s got top-end speed that you can’t coach; and analysts were talking second round in the draft and he fell for some odd reason—DeMarco Murray also was a fourth-rounder.  Lamar Miller is probably is a sleeper, less desirable than Ryan Williams, who has a real chance of starting. 

Giant Update 

The New York Giants are starting Ahmad Bradshaw in Week 4, so Andre Brown owners with visions of grandeur will need to be patient, as well.  Bradshaw will get hurt again sooner and later, and this is more about Coughlin standing by his battle-tested veterans.  Brown will get plenty of work and is more helpful to your team as a flex in Week 4—although Bradshaw, for a smaller back, is a great goalline guy.  Stay tuned.  We’re still looking for David Wilson.

Bits and Pieces: Folks, it’s still early enough to grab a back, and shoot up the standings.  I would also pay attention to the Pittsburgh (Mendenhall back in Week 6?) Denver (Keep stashing Hillman) and St. Louis (Keep stashing Pead) backfields' for winds of change.

Fantasy Football NFL Week 4: Running Back Turmoil..Who To Add..Part 1

There is a bit of turmoil and uncertainty in the NFL air recently.  The crazy mess that is the NFL in late September 2012-- complete with bad refereeing, team-decimating injuries, and strange wins and losses so far this season.  Part of winning at traditional fantasy football entails managing player injuries, sluggish performances, and staying on top of player updates on the depth charts and before kickoff.  Key running backs you've relied on including Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, and Chris Johnson are banged up or woefully ineffective.  Some like Ryan Matthews or Mikel LeShoure, played for the first time in Week 3.  Other running backs you drafted seem to be headed for the dreaded timeshare.

Fortunately, plenty of fantasy running back long-term options can be found for fantasy owners if you didn’t waste a waiver pick on an early bust like Kevin Ogletree or Stephen Hill.  In case you didn’t know, Week 4 in the fantasy football season represents the first real test for you, the fantasy football manager, to tweak, research and “finagle the bagel” because of byes and all the stuff I mentioned above.  For Part 1 we will analyze the Jets, Bills, and Titans. For Part 2 we will look at the Cardinals, Lions, and Miami Dolphins and some other teams.

Fear not, though.  An 0-3 fantasy record is not a death knell to your fantasy season if you stay calm, focused and figure out the path forward (and have a 10-team playoff...ha ha-just kidding).  I invite you to consider these fantasy tweaks, pickups, and just generally awesome advice.   For you owners who play daily leagues or are 2-1 or 3-0 or whatever, now is the time to pay attention to the winds of change.  Today, we focus on the backfields—who is going to get the carries?

Is Powell Ready To Be Colonel of Jets Ground Attack?

New York Jets – Although the Jets' Shonn Greene has been the mainstay in this backfield for decades now, Bilal Powell looms large.  This backfield is moving towards a timeshare, but I wouldn't start Powell this week in any format because Shonn Greene, although having the explosiveness of a pea-shooter, is still a Rex Ryan favorite.  Greene will still get the majority of touches against the stingy 49ers next week.  During the game monitor the hell out of touches for Powell.  He could be doing big things—I was always impressed with him in college. I give Powell a B+ for long term fantasy potential and Greene a D; he is what he is and the Jets offensive line he had the first couple of years didn’t make him the second coming of 2008 Michael Turner as previously hoped.  Joe McKnight is somewhere out there on the periphery—don’t worry about him. He’s a poor man’s Leon Washington minus the top-end speed. Bottom line: This could be the start of a timeshare as the Jets, without Revis, are going to need some big plays on offense to keep up.

Tashard "Yards-But-Not-A-Long-Term" Choice

Buffalo Bills – Staying in the Empire State, we look at the Bills, who thanks to their great offensive line are recreating the plug-and-play running back situation that the Denver Broncos had a few years ago.  Granted, they don’t zone block and both C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson are banged up, although Spiller (shoulder) is talking two weeks, and Fred Jackson (knee) was supposed to be return around this time anyway.  Insert Tashard Choice; he’s a bit of both, he has a little wiggle like Spiller, and some inside toughness on runs like Freddy Jack.  If he’s available, go get him because both of his running back cohorts are banged up.  Choice has had spot starts for a couple teams in his career, and he will be back to the bench as soon as one of the other hungry-to-grab-the-job-and-keep it guys are, say 75%.  For the New England game in Week 4, you will need to pick Choice up as a flex option and then Saturday, wait-and-see on Fred Jackson.  Spiller’s sleight frame will always be problematic when talking long-term fantasy potential, and Fred Jackson can’t stay healthy. But Choice is not the choice long-term.

Tennessee Titans—Lord knows, we’ve labored over CJ0K for three weeks. It is what it is at this point.  He showed signs of life and then lost big yards trying to freelance a couple plays against the Lions in Week 3.  He should probably see the bench but no one in Tennessee has the testicular fortitude to do so and funny, because Javon Ringer is capable. But not even a carry for the former Michigan State Spartan, so start Chris Johnson as a flex and pray.  He’s got to break out some time and Locker nearly put up 400 on Detroit.  Houston is stout versus run and pass but they are a divisional foe, so maybe familiarity will breed a 100-yard game.  We can pray.

Dear fantasy owner, fantasy championships are not won, I repeat, not won in September.  Timeshares aren't going anywhere unless you are the lucky owners of a few select NFL running backs.  More and more teams are utilizing three wide receivers for their flex leagues.  But the trends of the NFL and fantasy football have lately dictated that some backs breakout much to the joy and happiness of their owners and become bell cow runners.   Turn the turmoil on its ear; these are exciting times of opportunity that fantasy gamers should embrace.

Week 3 - Tampa brings back 1993 Madden offense and falls to 2012 Cowboys, 16-10

Trouble With the 3-4, Guys? Check the Playbook

NFL Week 3 Bucs / Cowboys – That Was Pathetic

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers showcased a feeble, non-imaginative, and just unwatchable display of offensive football in falling to the Dallas Cowboys 16-10, in Irving, Texas, on Sunday afternoon.  They wasted a great effort by the Bucs young defense, who limited the Cowpokes to 296 yards and rendered DeMarco Murray pretty useless and sacked Romo four times.  The positives--the Bucs defense will keep them in a lot of games this year; they are fast and aggressive, and force turnovers.  They’ve done that all season.  The negatives, though are overwhelming; when Troy Aikman (hardly a signal caller in an innovative offense) berates a lack of creativity on offense, then you know something is terribly wrong.  It seemed Tampa Bay ran and was content running the ball on first and second downs, gaining maybe two or three, and then incomplete pass on 3^rd. At one point, they punted seven straight times.  They were 1 for 9 or something like that on third down. The Bucs inexplicably ran the ball on third and 9 down by two scores right before the two minute warning.  LeGarrette Blount runs twice for 12 yards and then is put back on the shelf.  Vincent Jackson, thrown to seven times or so, only manages one catch for 29 yards.  But I lay this one at the feet of two men; Josh Freeman who regressed badly in this game (nice word for sucking) and offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan.    The defense played well most notably the front seven, holding DeMarco Murray to under 40 yards; I'm going to whine and complain about the Bucs offense because they shouldn't be looking like SteveDeBerg, Lawrence Dawsey, and a washed-up Gary Anderson, for any Bucs fans who used to run with Tampa Bay on Madden--in 1993. Jeez.

Where's the aWAREness?

First Josh Freeman; he was 10 for 28.  This is not going to cut it.  Madden hadn't invented "awareness" on players until around 1997 or so; Josh's was a 35 (out of 100) for my non-gamers in this game.  His mechanics weren’t the problem but he simply was an oblivious statue in the pocket and didn’t get into a rhythm all game.   He acted like DeMarcus Ware wasn’t on the other side several times; the Bucs quarterback got smashed numerous times on the blindside and fumbled ala 2011, and the Bucs were extremely fortunate to recover both times.  The interception was another Ware’s—D.J.’s which, if Doug Martin is a first-round pick and can be a third down back then why is D.J. Ware in?)  Freeman had guys open and missed them badly; he couldn’t feel the pressure and had problems getting the snap off in time—all shades of last year. This will not work. I don’t think Schiano could have imagined his offense performing so poorly.  

We'll Run it Again With Martin

Now my man Mike Sullivan, who I, before the season thought would bring Freeman and Co. some new looks in the passing game, completely you-know-what-the-bed in this game as the Bucs struggled to get 100 yards TOTAL.  Things started well, just like the Giants game—Aqib Talib picks Romo, a great pick like in 2010; he did something very similar to Joe Flacco. The first drive the Bucs went playaction on first and goal and then abandoned playaction the rest of the game, preferring to run Martin behind Nicks every play.  All the playaction rollouts to Lorig in weeks previous, just to get those short second downs—nowhere in sight.  I did see Lorig lined up in the slot, however.  A lot of single-back three-wide looks; the offensive line was getting pummeled as the Bucs ran Martin on a delay handoff out of this formation time and time again, it seemed.  Perhaps for good reason, running to the right has been completely ignored.   Tight ends Stocker and Clark don’t factor in this offense or aren’t getting separation.  The Giants weren’t really a tight end-featured offense, anyway.  

Mike Clayton- I mean, Mike Williams, doesn’t seem to betting separation this year (unless it’s the and Brandon Carr blanketed VJax all day so the Bucs probably figured to stick to the run.  So much so, that two scores down they go with a draw to Martin on third and nine, gaining negligible yardage and then lineup to punt? Like what the heck? I thought we played to the whistle? Fourth and 11, they reconsider after the two-minute warning, and lineup four or five-wide and lo and behold, Freeman guns one to VJax for 30 yards just like that.  I saw this plenty of times last year with Raheem Morris, where the Bucs would loaf for 55 minutes and then get frantic and focused, as the Bucs did yesterday for their only real scoring drive besides the turnover-induced drive in the first quarter.   There are similarities in what we saw last game against the Giants with another near Freeman comeback.  I’ve seen it too many times to think Freeman couldn’t be successful if the offense was tailored to his strengths, but at some point he is going to have to make a play in the first half.

Schiano has to let Free be Free (Agent)?

Schiano, I saw, was furious a few times, and special team gaffes by Jordan Shipley (who some folks on the Tampa blogs like to think is Steve Largent or something, and Myron Lewis, who committed a personal foul after the Bucs forced a punt).  I can bet this team got a serious tongue-lashing after today’s effort including Freeman.  I would be surprised if these professionals go out and lay and egg against the suddenly gracious Redskins defense.  The Bucs, I think, have the personnel to confuse RGIII enough to win the game but this team needs to figure out some damn plays besides this 1993 Madden offense their running now.

The silver lining is this year, even though I predicted 8-8, is still a rebuilding year, you don’t know if the Giants or Cowboys are really good yet and this where you figure out what you need to get the pirate ship turned around.  Games like this make it easy—you need at the very least a RT, a DE, a TE, another CB, and a RG. I still say 8 and 8. Look for Blount to be more involved in the running game, as the novelty of Doug Martin has worn off.  3.6 is still 3.6 (yards per carry); Errict Rhett pulled it off for a couple years (1994 and 1995) and we went 11-21.  This team is infinitely more talented.

Sullivan needs to get some creativity with the play calling and I suggest they go back and look at tape of the last three years of Freeman in the fourth quarter and figure out, whether it be going no-huddle, how to get that guy all game long. 

 

Week 3 NFL / Fantasy Football: Bigfoot Sightings/Warm Up the Trading Block

Greetings and salutations fantasy owners--what a crazy week..Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald, guys at WR commonly drafted after Megatron, combined for five catches for 15 yards in Week 2 and their teams won both games.  Some guys like Fitzgerald have straight up disappeared in fantasy football.  In the sake of finding these apparitions, we’ll call this article the Bigfoot article because there are several fantasy players that are rumored to be in the NFL, scoring points for your team but they haven’t been sighted in years.  After quiet Week 1 and Week 2’s these guys are in danger of being relegated to old wives talesdom.  However, since drafted highly in your league they are rumored to exist and keeping with the theme of a “sighting” we’ll go over the likelihood that you will see these players in all their point-scoring, team-winning, confidence-building glory.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Stafford In a Laugher?

Where has the real Matthew Stafford gone? In the first two games, the 2011 version of Stafford would have likely put up 700 yards and 6 touchdowns against the Rams and the 49ers (He actually put up 699 yards and 7 touchdowns at this point in 2011).  Stafford opened 2012 with a 300-yard, 3 interception performance against the Rams secondary that features Janoris Jenkins, and who else? The 49ers game, he understandably put up less stats but Megatron hasn’t even scored yet! His 73.2 QB Rating will get a boost with a visit to Tennessee, who hasn’t been competitive and has a slew of issues on offense and defense.  Stafford will face a Titans secondary that was carved up by Brady and Rivers in back-to-back weeks. The Lions don’t have a certified threat on the ground, so the Titans maybe keep this close thanks to a not-so-likely resurgence from Chris Johnson, which is actually good news for Stafford owners.  In an unexpected shootout, the Georgia gunslinger will keep firing away and will finish north of 250 with 2 touchdowns or more but no picks.

Sighting Possibility:  LIKELY

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Kolb (not) giving him Fitz?

What in the world is the deal with Fitzgerald? A perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver that averages 76.8 a game over his career has two catches for five yards in 2012? One main culprit; one being a quarterback, Kevin Kolb who may or may not start Week 3 against the Eagles, not being able to connect at all with Fitzgerald, really since Arizona acquired Kolb in 2011.   Fitzgerald was able to go for 7-146-2 last year with John Skelton lining up behind center.  Strange that Fitzgerald’s fantasy value would be tied to such a mediocre talent as John Skelton but that underscores how not in sync the Kolb-Fitzgerald chemistry is.  Fantasy owners should monitor the Cardinals QB situation for Week 3 against Philadelphia.  This would be a bigger issue in the NFL (not fantasy) if the Cardinals weren’t 2-0 coming off a shocking win against New England in Foxboro.  Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie await either way, but Fitzgerald owners are going to get a middling performance at best from Fitzgerald.  Arizona can’t run and the Eagles atrocious run defense of 2011 has gotten much better.

Sighting Possibility: SOMEWHAT LIKELY

Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers

Charged Up

Ryan Matthews needs to shake off the injury prone-fragile label in Week 3 to justify his really obscene average draft position in 2012.  Although Jackie Battle, Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley have held the fort for a 2-0 squad Ryan Matthews will probably get the lion’s share of carries to test an Atlanta run defense that surrendered 152 to Kansas City and 118 to Denver, including a buck thirteen to Willis McGahee.  The Chargers are going to try to run the ball and have Rivers throw to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem and Antonio Gates deep off play action.  Start Matthews as a RB2 but don’t go overboard thinking he’s going to go ham first week back.  It took him awhile to get going in 2011, but this Sunday he may make a play or two in the passing game, an area where’s he’s underrated.  Expect 80 yards rushing or so and a touchdown and 30 receiving yards or so, which in most of my leagues gets 17 points. That is decent production, but Matthews has the skills for much more going forward; he’s a must-start when healthy because I said so (and I drafted him 4^th overall in one league).

Sighting Possibility: LIKELY

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Everybody Trades Chris?

Draft time this year I vouched for Chris Johnson. Ok, vouched is a stretch, but I held me nose and took him second in a keeper league over McFadden and Megatron. He is an Orlando guy, raised very close to where my mother-in-law resides to this day.  He has made more exciting plays by simply being way too freaking fast.  Now I want to trade Chris.  Really..has there been a more disappointing fantasy 1,000-yard rushing season then his 2011 season? Even more disconcerting but not wholly unexpected, is the pain and torment of watching Chris Johnson get off to another dreadful start in 2012.  The Chris Johnson debacle will likely forever change the way fantasy owners view running backs receiving large contracts when its draft day.  He simply isn’t getting it done.  There are bad offensive lines, to be sure, but when you’re that quick and agile, at what point do you simply head forward for two yards instead of keep trying to cutback, cutback, cutback.  He’s pressing, sure, and the offensive line is guessing and the quarterback is hurt(ing) my feelings.  Tennessee has been the least competitive team in the NFL so far.   Ok, so now the positives. They will eventually either get a healthy Locker or Hasselbeck will provide some semblance of quarterback play, right?  Kenny Britt will open things up and with continued improved play from Jared Cook and if Nate Washington and Kendall Wright are your #2 and #3 things have to open up right? Detroit’s defensive line is vulnerable to draws and other delay handoffs, inviting Ndominant & Co. up the field, and letting them take themselves out of the play.  That works so much better when the defense has to respect the balanced Titans' attack-- which has been anything but the case so far.  But there is hope; delays out of the shotgun represent the type of play that Chris Johnson has broke open for so many big runs in his career.  All it takes is one . . but Tennessee will probably be playing catch up against the Lions, forcing them to throw, so the receiving game for CJ2K is going to have to be a saving grace.  Although looking at the schedule in early September, the Titans probably thought they could very well be 0-2 at this point, the team isn’t looking too good. Now back to CJ-please-gimme-1K, my guess is 45 yards rushing and 30 receiving with no trips to the end zone. This would represent encouragement for owners contemplating straight up trading him for Tim Biakabatuka.. Stay tuned.

Sighting Possibility: UNLIKELY

NFL Week 2 Fantasy News: What the @#$! Just Happened?

Unbelievable was the word for the NFL Week 2.  Let’s recap from a fantasy perspective.  TheStandardOne  likes to keep it positive, but I would be remiss if we didn’t recap some of the things we all thought we’re going to happen and didn’t.  Then we’ll get into the gold mines for Week 3.

Big Disappointments We Kinda Expected

Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Unfortunately, CJ0K is doing a rendition of last year’s pathetic start so far in 2012.  Against a decent San Diego rushing defense, Johnson rushed for 17 yards on eight carries and caught 2 passes.  That simply won’t cut it.  Traditional fantasy owners are losing patience with Chris Johnson, although the Titans run blocking has been mostly to blame.  Weekly owners and daily fantasy gamers should take a show-and-prove approach with him against the Detroit Lions in Week 3.

Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Matt Forte’s track record against the Packers was less than stellar, but the resurgent Packers run defense injured the Bears running back in the game.  He had a decent line to that point (7 carries for 31 yards, 4 catches for 49 yards) so he’s now unsure for Week 3 with a suspected high ankle sprain.  Forte’s injury not withstanding, even more disconcerting is Michael Bush’s expanding role.  Look for other options for Week 3 when the Bears play the St. Louis Rams.  Bush may be a decent RB2 or Flex if Forte can’t go.

Disappointments from Guys We Didn’t Expect:

Dezappearing Act?

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Where did Dez go? Starting to become a pattern with second-half disappearances.  Not ready to completely abandon him and has a matchup against the Bucs in Week 3. The Bucs secondary is still giving up yards to Eli as we speak.  

Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: I like Jamaal Charles--just knew he would run roughshod over the Bills...His performance Sunday was not at all what we had in mind! 6 carries for 3 yards and similar knee issues from last year-ugh.  Next up a visit to the Big Easy, whose Saints are more generous to opposing runners- he’s a shade below an RB 1 if healthy.  Be cautious utilizing him as a RB2--Hillis got 11 carries and this Shaun Draughn fellow isn’t going anywhere.  The Chiefs need to be more competitive to make Charles valuable.

Julio Jones, WR, Falcons; This 4 catch- 14 yard effort may have been the most damaging to a lot of fantasy Monday night owners with the week's victory hanging in the balance.  He dropped a touchdown in the first half and then turned into fantasy vapor. Two words: Champ Bailey.  The talented wide receiver won’t have a repeat game like that all season—next up the Chargers in San Diego.  Roddy White will still be a primary target for Matt Ryan.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: Bradshaw was supposed to run free against the Bucs in this game but injured his foot early.  He’s not doing anything to shake the injury-prone label and fantasy owners must be ready for the wait-and-see approach with him all season long.

A Look Ahead:

Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: He represents a must-start option at wide receiver, in case anyone was wondering.  The Broncos will face the undefeated Houston Texans, who haven’t played anyone (wins vs. Miami and Jacksonville) but could find themselves trailing in Houston.  Thomas is a beast after the catch, utilizing screens from Peyton Manning.  Deploy and collect the checks with Demaryius, who needs a catchy nickname.

Far From Bush League

Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: All that offseason talk about Reggie Bush receiving a lesser workload was just talk, especially after his 172 yards rushing and two touchdowns against the Oakland Raiders.  If last year's 1,000 yard-season didn't dispel misconceptions about his viability and durability as a legitimate NFL starting-caliber running back, then Week 2 did.  Reggie Bush is a must-start even against the Jets, who struggled with a similar type runner in C.J. Spiller in Week 1.  Bigger-name running backs are falling to injury and struggling in other aspects, so  fantasy teams that go with Bush are getting a precious commodity right now in the NFL: A breakaway RB threat with no injury/performance issues.  He’s an ideal RB2.

Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: Alex Smith is turning into a low-end QB1 right before our eyes.  He has been a steady fantasy contributor so far because he has lots of weapons and doesn’t turn the ball over.  He won’t turn in many 300-yard efforts but many of these 300 yards efforts from higher ranked quarterbacks don’t score the same points because of the aforementioned turnovers.  Ride the wave while you can. Up next: A trip to the Metrodome against the Vikings secondary, who made Blaine Gabbert look good in Week 1 and were handled by rookie Andrew Luck in Week 2.

Trends and Other Notes

(And for fantasy owners that have a revolving door at fantasy DEF)…

The Titans can’t run the ball right now (or do anything else on offense for that matter).

The Buccaneers can’t stop the pass right now.

The Cardinals defense is making noise.

The Seahawks will continue to be a better, different team at home.

The Jaguars will struggle on offense.

The Browns may not be complete garbage on offense.

Fantasy Football Week 2 - The Sunday Morning Update

Fantasy owners looking to build off of NFL Week 1 know that jumping out to a 2-0 start in your league greatly improves your chances of making it to your fantasy playoffs!! Did you know that something like 71% of all fantasy teams that start 2-0 make it to their fantasy playoffs?  That last statement was completely unfounded, but you know the deal.  If you started out 0-1, then 1-1 is so much better than staring at 0-2. A lot of supposedly good/contending teams in the NFL reality (not fantasy) are staring at 0-2 if they don’ t get their acts together, and conversely a couple of surprising teams could be 2-0 after this week.  But I won’t get ahead of myself—we are here to help you the navigate football fantasy waters and for my daily and weekly fantasy gamers, get some quick cash in your pockets.  So let’s run down the Week 2 games and uncover some gold mines.

Kansas City vs. Buffalo

Charles= Large and In Charge

This game figures to be a shootout because (surprise!) none of these teams look like they can stop passing attacks.  Last week the Chiefs got ambushed by the Atlanta Falcons, 40-24, and the Buffalo Bills made the New York Jets look like the 1999 St. Louis Rams (48 points for the Jets—tied for the most ever by that team in a season opener).  Problem is both the Chiefs and Bills have only slightly above average quarterbacks in Matt Cassel and Ryan Fitzpatrick.  I’d say the biggest fantasy points will come from running backs C.J Spiller and Jamaal Charles—both of these guys are capable of taking a play all the way to the house.  Stevie Johnson (Bills) and Dwayne Bowe, because of their physicality and ability to beat corners off the line, will be able to exploit mismatches in each team’s opposing secondaries. The Kansas City secondary is more suspect than Buffalo’s but the Chiefs wideouts are more explosive than the Bills—a conundrum.  Dexter McCluster may have a poor man’s Wes Welker game to the tune of 7-catches and 60 yards but no touchdowns.

Adore:  C.J Spiller, Jamaal Charles

Meh: Dwayne Bowe, Stevie Johnson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Dexter McCluster, Kansas City D

Avoid: Matt Cassel, Buffalo D

Denver vs. Atlanta

The Age of Demaryius

Another potential shootout in the Georgia Dome for the Monday night game; both teams come off impressive Week 1 wins.  The Falcons will be without Brent Grimes, their presumptive shutdown corner.  This figures to have a trickle-down effect on the entire Atlanta defense.  Demaryius Thomas who is starting to show some Megatronish-type skills at wide receiver is going to be great fantasy option in this game.  He’ll be matched up against Dunta Robinson or Asante Samuel—both are small and physical corners but will be hard-pressed to match up physically with the specimen from Georgia Tech.  This means Eric Decker and Jacob Tamme will also have good fantasy potential. I say all this about Denver because the Atlanta Falcons will put up points with ease against the Broncos secondary.  Wide receiver Julio Jones, who has been the real deal so far in the NFL, will likely draw Hall of Famer cornerback Champ Bailey.  Bailey is still capable but Jones catch and run ability will be a difficult assignment for the veteran.  Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will benefit just as Decker and Tamme, as Jones will likely draw double coverage.  Both running games will be afterthoughts although I like Willis McGahee and possibly Knowshon Moreno to score a goalline touchdown after Manning and his receivers do the heavy lifting in between the 20s.  The Falcons seem hell-bent on throwing so I’m not sure what to think of Michael Turner.  The Broncos did an alright job of stuffing the run last week but that was at home.  Turner probably will rebound in this game and run for about eighty yards and a score.  Jacquizz Rodgers, (who I’ve never been impressed with) has been mentioned as taking over first-string running back duty should Turner continue to shuffle, could be a factor in passing game.

Adore: Peyton Manning, Matt Ryan, Demaryius Thomas, Julio Jones, Eric Decker

Meh: Michael Turner, Willis McGahee, Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Jacob Tamme

Avoid: Atlanta D, Denver D, Jacquizz Rodgers

Other thoughts around Week 2:

I'm Startin' Martin

I wouldn’t say he’s an automatic must-start just yet, but Tampa Bay’s Doug Martin looks like a lock for twenty carries a game in Greg Schiano’s ball control offense.  Martin is a feisty, Curtis Martin-type who grinds out tough yards and is always moving forward.  He gets the Giants in Week 2 who had struggles stopping DeMarco Murray in Week 1.

A Reggie Wayne resurgence in 2012 looks very likely after his 9-catch, 135-yard performance in Week 1 vs. the Bears.   Andrew Luck is certainly an upgrade and the Colts will trail plenty this year, which bodes well for lots of catches for Reggie.  Up next: Week 2 and Minnesota’s always-suspect secondary.

Don’t bury Frank Gore just yet—112 yards on 16 carries against the Packers run defense in Week 1 means that Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, LaMichael James, LeBron James and whoever else are just going to have to wait to supplant Gore as the bellcow in San Francisco.  The former Miami Hurricane isn’t ready to be put out to pasture just yet.  Next up, the Detroit Lions in Week 2.  The much-maligned run defense for the Lions was effective in shutting down the Rams last week; they limited Steven Jackson to 53 yards on 21 carries.  Look for Gore to continue his success.

Wes side of the bench?

I think Wes Welker owners should consider their other fantasy options for Week 2.  In Week 1, quarteback Tom Brady tried to find new toy Brandon Lloyd (team-leading 8 targets) in a blowout win against the Titans.  Wes Welker caught only 3 passes for 14 yards.  That simply won’t cut it--one has to wonder how Welker fits on this new New England offense; they have discovered running the ball with Stevan Ridley and still feature two great tight ends that aren’t going anywhere.  Welker has even split reps with Julian Edelman! Shades of 2010 when owners expected Welker to go for his fourth straight 100-catch season and ended up with 85-848 and 7 scores.  Decent, but not where owners were drafting him.  It’s not looking like Welker will be able to get to 100 catches this year.