Week 13: Do or Die Time in Fantasy Football

It’s the final game of the regular fantasy season time for many owners or close to it.  The key is, just like real football, or even a blind date, is momentum.  Guys who were a bane to your existence in Week 4 and Week 5, are now hot commodities in early December.  Guys like Hakeem Nicks, Matthew Stafford, and Chris Johnson’s struggles early on could all be forgotten with playoff-clinching performances this week.  Let’s look at some situations in Week 13 that could make the difference.

GangGreene Has Set In On Shonn..

It's Die Time; Get Gang "Greene" On the Bench

As we’ve touched upon throughout the season, Shonn Greene has struggled this year to really, not be Shonn Greene.  He's a poor man's Michael Turner who has been mildly successful running behind a great offensive line with no viable timeshare threat.  Times have changed; Bilal Powell is now sharing reps with Shonn Greene, taking goalline carries away from the Jets struggling workhorse.  Powell has an agility and change of direction ability that allows the Jets more flexibility in passing situations, which their now-porous defense puts them in.  Actually, Mark Sanchez’s ineptitude puts the Jets in more passing situations as well.  We know the Jets need a major influx at talent in the draft; I would add running back to the needs list as well. Bilal Powell is a decent flex player and the Cardinals are middling at stopping the run but why would you waste a starting spot on Greene who has one good fantasy game all year?

Stay At The Hilton?

As a South Florida resident, we’ve had a little more exposure to T.Y. Hilton, current rookie wideout, aspiring-to-be-the-Colts-number-two-option-behind-Reggie-Wayne.  Hilton went to Florida International University in Sweetwater, which is in a western Miami suburb. Hilton has the wheels to get deep (4.34 speed) hands and isn't afraid of going over the middle. (Looks for Hilton). He's 5'9' - 183 pound speedster who has helped the 7-4 Indianapolis team on special teams, as every good fourth round draft pick should.  The Colts are going to sling it around the yard and will be right at home at Ford Field.  Looks for Hilton as a sneaky flex option, as the Lions and Colts are headed t for Shoot-Out-Ville.  Its like Farmville for Fantasy Owners.  He's got Dwayne Allen and Donnie Avery as contenders for targets. I'd feel better about him if he wasn't on special teams as that could limit snaps, but he's good to roll with this week as a low-end flex.  He's not Cecil Shorts, just yet, however.

Beanie Means Well? 

Is Beanie Back?

Will Beanie Wells be a reliable option going forward?  This guy doesn't think so, but are the Cardinals really that bad on offense? Who is Ryan Lindley? These are all questions owners willing to roll with Beanie Man have to ask themselves.  What you may not need to ask is in LaRod Stephens done “howling” at opponents end zone after an encouraging cameo as the Cardinals main guy. This week against the Jets, I'd roll with him as a flex, but not a RB2.  His plodding style and injury issues could resurface..but, given the running back issues league wide.  I'd saying right now the Cardinals will move the ball against the Jets and punch it in with Wells at least once.  He scored two last week against the Rams, LaRod Stephens is banged up. He has a nose for the endzone, like Shonn Greene was supposed to have.  The Jets have given up 100 yards rushing in like, 11 games this season, including 152 last week to the Patriots.

Jennings: Trying To Get It  Together

Greg Jennings Return?  Mr. Old Spice or Just Old ? How will he figure into the targets of an emerging  Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, and a slightly resurgent Jermichael Finley?  He's not sure, but according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, the Cover 2 defenses the Packers receivers are struggling with, may have Jennings playing more than anticipated. The Packers offense went into hiding against a very resurgent New York Giants club in Week 12, getting drubbed handily, 38-10.  They’ll be sure to want to get the passing game rolling early against the Vikings in Lambeau on Sunday. The Skinny: Jennings isn't likely to be in game shape, Cobb isn't going anywhere, and Nelson is Nelson, so any action Jennings receives probably negatively impacts James Jones.   Jennings is a flex play at best.  Random thought..did you know Donald Driver is still on the team?

Fantasy Football NFL Week 4: Running Back Turmoil..Who To Add..Part 1

There is a bit of turmoil and uncertainty in the NFL air recently.  The crazy mess that is the NFL in late September 2012-- complete with bad refereeing, team-decimating injuries, and strange wins and losses so far this season.  Part of winning at traditional fantasy football entails managing player injuries, sluggish performances, and staying on top of player updates on the depth charts and before kickoff.  Key running backs you've relied on including Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller, Reggie Bush, Beanie Wells, Steven Jackson, Matt Forte, and Chris Johnson are banged up or woefully ineffective.  Some like Ryan Matthews or Mikel LeShoure, played for the first time in Week 3.  Other running backs you drafted seem to be headed for the dreaded timeshare.

Fortunately, plenty of fantasy running back long-term options can be found for fantasy owners if you didn’t waste a waiver pick on an early bust like Kevin Ogletree or Stephen Hill.  In case you didn’t know, Week 4 in the fantasy football season represents the first real test for you, the fantasy football manager, to tweak, research and “finagle the bagel” because of byes and all the stuff I mentioned above.  For Part 1 we will analyze the Jets, Bills, and Titans. For Part 2 we will look at the Cardinals, Lions, and Miami Dolphins and some other teams.

Fear not, though.  An 0-3 fantasy record is not a death knell to your fantasy season if you stay calm, focused and figure out the path forward (and have a 10-team playoff...ha ha-just kidding).  I invite you to consider these fantasy tweaks, pickups, and just generally awesome advice.   For you owners who play daily leagues or are 2-1 or 3-0 or whatever, now is the time to pay attention to the winds of change.  Today, we focus on the backfields—who is going to get the carries?

Is Powell Ready To Be Colonel of Jets Ground Attack?

New York Jets – Although the Jets' Shonn Greene has been the mainstay in this backfield for decades now, Bilal Powell looms large.  This backfield is moving towards a timeshare, but I wouldn't start Powell this week in any format because Shonn Greene, although having the explosiveness of a pea-shooter, is still a Rex Ryan favorite.  Greene will still get the majority of touches against the stingy 49ers next week.  During the game monitor the hell out of touches for Powell.  He could be doing big things—I was always impressed with him in college. I give Powell a B+ for long term fantasy potential and Greene a D; he is what he is and the Jets offensive line he had the first couple of years didn’t make him the second coming of 2008 Michael Turner as previously hoped.  Joe McKnight is somewhere out there on the periphery—don’t worry about him. He’s a poor man’s Leon Washington minus the top-end speed. Bottom line: This could be the start of a timeshare as the Jets, without Revis, are going to need some big plays on offense to keep up.

Tashard "Yards-But-Not-A-Long-Term" Choice

Buffalo Bills – Staying in the Empire State, we look at the Bills, who thanks to their great offensive line are recreating the plug-and-play running back situation that the Denver Broncos had a few years ago.  Granted, they don’t zone block and both C.J Spiller and Fred Jackson are banged up, although Spiller (shoulder) is talking two weeks, and Fred Jackson (knee) was supposed to be return around this time anyway.  Insert Tashard Choice; he’s a bit of both, he has a little wiggle like Spiller, and some inside toughness on runs like Freddy Jack.  If he’s available, go get him because both of his running back cohorts are banged up.  Choice has had spot starts for a couple teams in his career, and he will be back to the bench as soon as one of the other hungry-to-grab-the-job-and-keep it guys are, say 75%.  For the New England game in Week 4, you will need to pick Choice up as a flex option and then Saturday, wait-and-see on Fred Jackson.  Spiller’s sleight frame will always be problematic when talking long-term fantasy potential, and Fred Jackson can’t stay healthy. But Choice is not the choice long-term.

Tennessee Titans—Lord knows, we’ve labored over CJ0K for three weeks. It is what it is at this point.  He showed signs of life and then lost big yards trying to freelance a couple plays against the Lions in Week 3.  He should probably see the bench but no one in Tennessee has the testicular fortitude to do so and funny, because Javon Ringer is capable. But not even a carry for the former Michigan State Spartan, so start Chris Johnson as a flex and pray.  He’s got to break out some time and Locker nearly put up 400 on Detroit.  Houston is stout versus run and pass but they are a divisional foe, so maybe familiarity will breed a 100-yard game.  We can pray.

Dear fantasy owner, fantasy championships are not won, I repeat, not won in September.  Timeshares aren't going anywhere unless you are the lucky owners of a few select NFL running backs.  More and more teams are utilizing three wide receivers for their flex leagues.  But the trends of the NFL and fantasy football have lately dictated that some backs breakout much to the joy and happiness of their owners and become bell cow runners.   Turn the turmoil on its ear; these are exciting times of opportunity that fantasy gamers should embrace.