Risk over Reward: What you should know when drafting RB1 (when the top three RBs are gone)

When it comes to winning fantasy football there are many factors that can contribute to “food on the table” in January or another fruitless year, another wasted buy-in. There are players that get hot late and those that fade down the stretch. Safeguarding against these hot and cold players with surefire picks in your first round is what most owners would prefer, but how many times are you going to draft safe only to watch the schmuck who took a major risk drafting that year get hot and ride the wave to championship glory? Too many times drafting safely leads to 12-1 but that one loss knocking you out, while Mr. 8-7-1 wins the big money. Risky drafting is just that, but you know basically you want to draft talent and value. With the economy still in transition (and that’s putting it nicely) your running back picks, no matter what style of drafting you employ, will need to bear fruit (keeping with the food references) in December, when many fantasy championships are on the line. In most standard league fantasy drafts in 2012, the pecking order goes something like this: the true blue, surefire RB1's-- Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy--and more and more, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and/or Drew Brees (although I can make the case that Brees may not be a great value in top seven, or top ten for that matter.)

The days of going RB-RB-RB in the first three rounds and automatically winning championships are going the way of the dodo bird; the lack of surefire RB1 value beginning at pick four is cause for concern. While one can justify going Rodgers at four because of his otherworldly stats (including low-INT numbers) traditionalists may find risky, but palatable, taking Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew or Chris Johnson. Fact is, each three of these RB1s have been top guys for the last couple of seasons but have major question marks. The reason you still want a dynamic RB1 with the risk is to win matchups when all other things are equal. Its why some will have no issue drafting Rodgers at 4 or 1 for that matter, because ofthe perceived week-in and week-out they will have a distinct advantage. I don’t like going QB that high-- because to me, a combo of Rodgers-Forte-J. Charles is still not as formidableof a points scoring trio of a Chris Johnson-DeMarco Murray-Eli Manning. Leagues typically aren’t won in the first three rounds anyway because, depth, depth, is paramount because guys are going to get hurt and there are still going to be unfavorable matchups week-in and week-out. Now onto our flawed but fleet footed contestants:

Darren McFadden


Positives: If you want to really be risky and go talent over safety --do yourself a favor, if McFadden is there at mid-1st round, scoop him up and take Mike Goodson in the tenth round--his only RB backup and smallish—so he won’t take goal line carries away. My man, DMac--There is no bigger risk or reward player in fantasy football, his 88.6 rushing yards per contest since 2010 is behind Foster (97.9) and Jones-Drew (97.7) and he averages more receiving yards per game than MJD. Darren McFadden can be the key to your season; he’s a risk but now he’s got a real QB (finally) in Carson Palmer, a real coach and a real GM for the

first time in his career. The Raiders wideouts, led by Darius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore (guys who should also be on your radar) are a fast bunch that will open up the offense for Run DMC. McFadden is a threat on screens and draws so the yards per touch are always there. Combo him up with a safe RB2 like Doug Martin or Frank Gore and watch your commitment to excellence.

Negatives: Darren McFadden, while arguably the most talented of the bunch, is as likely to play a full season as T.O. and Donovan McNabb joining forces and buying a chain of TCBY's. He is frag-gillie; but when healthy he produces rushing and receiving yards at a video game pace—and no more Michael Bush to poach goal line totes; the plan in Oakland is to RunDMC. But he’s still got those same skinny ankles and a 6’2 210 frame that make him a conundrum at picks 4-8. If he’s available at ten he’s far more palatable, because you are likely having a pick in the early second round to hedge your bet. DMac is going in the 20s and 30s in some draft and as early as four in non-keepers standard twelve teamers. Yogurt anyone?

Chris Johnson


Positives: Enter my man Chris Johnson; a true gamebreaker, one play can make his and your day. Injury-resistant, he’s well under 30, and in the middle of the first doesn’t share carries and still caught fifty passes last year on a surprising 9-7 Titans team that was there contending for a playoff spot. Again, like McFadden, the pick at 4-8 needs to be surefire although I’d say CJ2K can break one at any time making the previous twelve carries for twenty-nine yards irrelevant. Ladies and gentlemen, he is a speed merchant who has no qualms about racing Usain Bolt. Perhaps that fire has returned.

Negatives: Started real slow in 2011, finished better. Yards per carry was near two and a half for more than a quarter of a season—not what you want from a top five pick. A former top three fantasy no-brainer and 2,000 yards in a season rusher who inexplicably fell off his normal production in 2011 to just over 1,000 yards and a measly (for him) 4.0 yards per carry. Johnson seemed to lack the ability to break arm tackles last year. Johnson may be the poster child for why NFL general managers are hesitant to give certain running backs long-term deals. CJ2K simply didn't look as hungry and willing to grind out tough yards like he has in All-Pro seasons previous. This year new starting second-year QB Jake Locker, who is quite mobile, may rely on Johnson more in the passing game as well. On paper, this is a decent offense; but head coach Mike Munchak wants to employ the run-and-shoot? Talks of 15-18 carries a game for CJ2K? Worrisome, worrisome, worrisome.


Maurice Jones-Drew

Positives: MJD leaves the experts and analysts puzzled by how this bowling ball continues to put up 4.5+ a carry on an offensively challenged, small-market team that may have the least envious quarterbacking outlook in the National Football League. But there he is, gaining 1,600 yards in 2011 when defenses keyed on him and he still produced. In terms of sheer production and injury avoidance, he is as dependable and productive as any RB in football. If the Jaguars could improve their aerial assault just slightly (read Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson) then Jones-Drew could be looking at double-digit scores on the ground a la 2009.

Negatives: The recent situation with Maurice Jones-Drew is slightly troubling, as is the wear and tear (being durable is a sword that seems to cut both ways) as is the emergence of Rashad Jennings, a chic pick in the seventh to ninth rounds. The Jags say MJD will be their third-down back in Week 1 versus the Minnesota Vikings.  If Rashad Jennings  grabs the opportunities and runs with it,  MJD could find himself sharing carries for the duration of 2012.  Unlikely, given their collective resumes, but new regimes like to put their stamp on franchises, as Mr. Khan has opted-in for a handful of "home" games in London.  But Mr. Khan would do well to proceed with caution; mishandling MJD playing time combined with removal of true home games may cause fan morale to sink further.  He wants to likely see what he has in Jennings anyway. I would still take MJD in the bottom of the first and top of the second at the earliest because 1,600 yards rushing doesn't grow on trees.  The Jaguars will lean on the running game but this team has some talented wide receivers--not seen in Duval since the days of Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.

Of course if Arian Foster, Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy drop to you in the mid 1st round because of premature and ill-advised quarterback runs, then by all means, scoop up and take to the bank.  But if not, and these three running backs are available they are all still worth being picked at four and later.  Overall I  would recommend McFadden, Johnson, then Jones-Drew in that order. In a standard twelve-teamer, if you pass over these guys to draft a Brady, Megatron or a Brees you may be looking at Matt Forte, Steven Jackson and/or taking an even bigger risk drafting Adrian Peterson at around picks 17-20 or so. Don’t take that risk and end up relying on mediocre RB talent during the fantasy stretch run.

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