| Buccaneers Coach Greg Schiano |
Enter
Greg Schiano, although a .500 record during an 11-year career at Big East ne’er do-well Rutgers; he gained
a reputation for hard-nose, physical team that relied on the running game to
control tempo. The Buccaneers threw the
ball more than they wanted to in 2011, partly because the team trailed for so
much of the season. That won’t be the
case this year.
Schiano
immediately jettisoned some headaches (TE Winslow, FS Tanard Jackson, WR Dezmon
Briscoe) and underperforming players (Jeff Faine, Brian Price) and quickly made
the team more in his image with players like rookie running back Doug Martin
(more on him later). As many experts
will tell you, it’s all good if your team buys into what you’re selling. And nowhere have the changes been more
apparent so far than on defense; the preseason has seen the first-team defense
match up well with the first-team offenses in the four games that don’t count.
But
you gotta start somewhere. It’s back to
basics in the Bay Area for 2012. The
team tickled not tackled last year on run defense, finishing dead last in yards
allowed (2,497) and rushing touchdowns allowed (26—seven more than the 31st
team, the Buffalo Bills, with 19). As
long suffering Bucs fans know, they are used to seeing bottom-half offenses;
but the apathy and just general suckitude on run defense sealed the deal for
Mr. Morris. Run defense is all about want-to and Schiano has made it clear
from Day 1 that this guys he runs out there will have plenty of that. Of
course, when the Saints and Falcons and resurgent Carolina Panthers are in your division, you are going to need to stop them from running and then score some
points on your own.
| Vincent Jackson = Elevated Offense? |
The Buccaneers
finally acquired a legitimate WR1 when they signed Vincent Jackson. He should have an awesome trickle-down effect
on the offense. Mike Williams may be
more suited to be a WR2 after his 11.5 yards per catch effort of 2011. He lacked the physicality to beat press
coverage and looked lackadaisical at times.
Vincent Jackson brings an upgrade to the wide receiver core athletically
and mentally. Sometimes when a whole
unit is a homegrown, young unit and lacks a veteran star like VJax, they can
think their better than they really are –for lack of comparison. Teaming him with Mike Williams, Arrelious
Benn, Preston Parker and Sammie Stroughter—the wide receiver unit is now
believed to be a strength on this team.
There aren’t any all-world secondaries in the NFC South so when Josh
Freeman wants to summon the aerial attack there is big-play potential. Dallas Clark will be part of a deep
pass-catching group but coming off major injury-plagued seasons in 2011 and 2011 hasn’t given an indication on what he has got left
in the old gas tank. He may surprise as
well.
| Doug Martin |
Passing
game aside, this team will establish the run first and foremost. The second big acquisition mammoth Carl Nicks
from the Saints is probably already guaranteed a Pro Bowl spot. He is massive. The Buccaneers, with the signing of Nicks,
have the highest paid offensive line in the league; that line took a hit when
Davin Joseph (who I’ve met at Whiskey Park before—real nice guy) injured his
knee in the preseason and will be out for the season. This team last year, averaged a respectable
yards per carry (4.2) which says a lot about current second string RB
LeGarrette Blount’s ability to hurdle and drag tacklers. A unique runner as you will find in the NFL,
he supposedly lacks other key skills (catching and blocking) to the point that
the Bucs drafted Doug Martin, a jack-of-all-trades runner from Boise
State. Doug Martin isn’t overly strong
or elusive, but does possess great vision and agility (6.69 s in the NFL cone
drill) and blocks, catches well. He has
been compared to guys like Matt Forte for his vision, and guys like Curtis
Martin and Roger Craig for his lunchpail mentality. I imagine him as a guy who will bleed every
yard possible, and prove quite reliable in the passing game. 1,300 and total yards and 10 TDs are well in
reach for him for all my fantasy heads. Just one caution, he did not play against
major college opponents, although looked decent against the SEC’s Georgia
Bulldogs in 2011.
| Josh Freeman |
Of
course, I saved the most critical piece of the offense for last, quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,
Josh Freeman, who had plenty what-the-heck moments last year. The 22
interceptions didn’t break the Bucs team record (Vinny Testaverde threw 35 in
1987) but it raised the legitimate concern that 2010 (nearly 3,500 yards / 25 touchdowns
and 6 interceptions) was a fluke and that Freeman would never place himself
among the game’s elite at the quarterback position. Add to
that Freeman, some fans would say, still looks shaky in the 2012 preseason.
Relax ya'll. The Josh Freeman we saw in 2010 wasn’t as good as his stats indicated, and he isn't as garbage as the Freeman as we saw in 2011. The truth lies somewhere in the middle. Coach Schiano will not tolerate turnovers
from his leader; ball protection will be
placed at a premium (another plus in the Doug Martin category). It is hard to imagine winning in the NFL
without having to air it out some of the time, especially if one takes a look
at all the proven opponent quarterbacks on the 2012 Buccaneers schedule. Freeman will set up play-action more this
season and use his legs more, ala 2010.
Those are the strengths of his game—he is never going to be Drew Brees,
throwing fifty times a game from the pocket.
Freeman will roll out, buy time by running, throw the ball away and
resist turnovers. His mechanics will be
fine; for big quarterbacks there’s a lot more movement to reign in, if you look
at Roethlisberger or Flacco, they have had times where their mechanics have not
looked impressive. This offense under
Mike Sullivan will likely employ more two-back three-wide receiver formations
which puts more playmakers on the field at once.
| Adrian Clayborn |
When
the team sets up shop on defense, you will likely notice the Buccaneers
blitzing a lot more than in previous seasons.
Finishing dead last in sacks in 2011 (23) and with the juggernauts in
the division, the Bucs can’t afford to sit back and let opposing signal callers
get comfortable. Their is some talent here; right defensive end Adrian Clayborn, the former first-rounder, led the team with eight sacks in 2011 and left end Michael Bennett is stout against the run. The Bucs have invested
a lot on their defensive line and they looked terrible in 2011, especially during
the losing streak. Schiano jettisoned guys
who didn’t show fire on the line, and drafted Lavonte David and Mark Barron to
assist corralling runners that do make it past the line for 2012. Lavonte David, while undersized, will be the
key to the defense in 2012. He will
likely need to shadow guys like Cam Newton, while serving as the nickel backer
on passing down, covering tight ends and backs out of the flat. He and safety Mark Barron show great
anticipation as defenders, these guys can diagnose plays quickly and have the
speed and agility to make stops—something Mason Foster can only learn
from. The Buccaneers have the tools to
at least be a middle-tier defense this year.
The
Buccaneers special teams got a lot of opportunities to hone their craft in 2011,
and punter Michael Koenen and kicker Connor Barth were both worthy of Pro Bowl
bids. Special team return duties will
likely be handled by rookie running back Michael Smith and returning wideout
Sammie Straughter. At this time, Preston
Parker will not handle returns, something that he struggled with last year and
early in the preseason this year.
The
Buccaneers have been picked to finish last in the division by the majority of
pundits, and expected record-wise to finish around 6-10 this year.
Bucs fans like me won’t settle for anything less than 7-9. This was a
10-6 team two years ago; the schedule while not as favorable, does present the
team with 8-8 as a possibility. The
opener at home against Carolina is critical.
If the Bucs can get Cam Newton making mistakes and started on the
sophomore jinx nice and early, they can pound the rock to victory against a porous
Carolina run defense. Make no mistake: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be vastly improved in 2012.
2012 Prediction, 8 wins, 8 losses.
W- CAROLINA
L - @ NY Giants
L -@ Dallas
W -WASHINGTON
Bye
W- KANSAS CITY
W-NEW ORLEANS
W- @ Minnesota
W- @ Oakland
L - SAN DIEGO
L -@ Carolina
L - ATLANTA
L -@ Denver
L -PHILADELPHIA
L -@ New Orleans
W -ST. LOUIS
W -@ Atlanta
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