New Additions Loney,
Escobar, and Johnson Will Make Rays Better Simply By Default
The Tampa Bay Rays come into 2013
with pretty much the same questions about the offense as they have in the last
few off seasons. While their pitching,
defense and coaching are top-shelf, Rays since 2010 have ranked 27th,
25th, and 27th in Major League Baseball in batting
average. The offense has struggled to make contact and
avoid strikeouts, putting a lot of pressure on the pitching staff. This
offseason the Rays offense got better by removing guys who strike out too much and
adding James Loney, Yunel Escobar, and Kelly Johnson, three veterans who are more
consistent offensive threats. Loney,
Escobar, and Johnson’s career on base percentages are .339, .353, and .338
respectively, compared to Upton’s .298, Pena’s .330 and Elliot Johnson’s .304
in 2012. Overall the team’s ability to get on base has
suffered in recent years, ranking a middling 16th in MLB (.317). Other
offensive production stats such as batting average, runs, and slugging
percentage were also declining, particularly in the infield, with culprits like
Sean Rodriguez (.213-6-32), Carlos Pena (.197-19-61) Elliot Johnson (.242-6-33)
logging significant at-bats. These guys
struck out way, way too much. If the Rays give the new additions comparable
at-bats in ’13, those offensive numbers will trend positively and equate to
more wins.
With a combined 2,651 games under
the collective belts, these new players are solid, if unspectacular, and
represent upgrades to a Ray lineup that has had three perfect games thrown
against since 2009. The Rays will still
play National League-style small ball but will be better at it with these three
getting plate appearances. When star
third baseman Evan Longoria got hurt last year the offense struggled and the
Rays fell behind in the standings hitting only.240 as a team, striking out the
second most in the American League (1,323- only the Oakland A’s were more worse).
Addressing that problem directly,
they chose not to re-sign
centerfielder B.J Upton (signed with Atlanta) or first baseman Carlos Pena (singed
with Houston) and lost super-utilityman Jeff Keppinger to the White Sox. While Upton, Pena, and Keppinger produced at
times for the Rays offense in 2012, only Jeff Keppinger (.325 BA in 2012) will
truly be missed. In 2012, Pena hit less
than his weight and Upton only walked 45 times and struck out a
mind-boggling-for-a-centerfielder 169
times, which likely negated any positive impact his 28 homers and 31 steals had.
So, as they have in the past, the
Tampa Bay front office dug deep into baseball sabermetrics and looked for more
efficient, albeit cost-friendly, hitters on offense. These
new additions will be great pieces to a title run in 2013 remember this is a
team that has coaxed decent performances out of the Casey Kotchmans and Jason
Bartletts of the world. Their tight-knit unique clubhouse culture can
withstand other teams’ castoffs—think Luke Scott and the former Fausto Carmona
among others. Loney, particularly, was
regarded by the Dodgers as a stand-up clubhouse guy, which GM Andrew Friedman
probably valued as well.
The Rays have hit in the .250 for
years yet have still won plenty of games.
If these vets, can provide an uptick in batting average and get more men
on base the Rays will be tough to beat. One
of the reasons the Rays play small ball and focus on getting on base by any
method is that speaking from a park’s perspective, Tropicana Field statistically
ranks as one of the most-pitching
friendly parks in baseball. A study was
done by ScoutingBook.com ranking ballparks and found that between 2010-2012,
for every 100 runs scored in an MLB average park, only 83 runs were scored in
Tropicana Field. The domed stadium
features a quick turf that favors a line-drive, spray hitting approach, like
Carl Crawford in his prime. The Rays
brass is betting that the new Rays can take advantage of the quick surfaces in
the dome.
As a first baseman, the enigmatic
Loney doesn’t hit home runs nearly as much as most 1B--he’s only gone deep 73
times in 3,177 at bats. Despite the lack of power, the lefthanded Loney
plays good defense and has a line-drive type approach at the plate. He’s had back-to-back 90 RBI seasons with the
Dodgers in 2008 and 2009, so he can produce in the middle of the lineup. Over
his 929-game career, he has hit his fair share of doubles (176) and triples
(20) and has never struck out more than 95 times in a season. Loney makes contact--his walk/whiff ratio is
a tidy 273/425 over his career despite having four seasons in which he recorded
500+ at-bats. Carlos Pena, by contrast,
struck out 503 times in his last 439 games as a Ray. Much like the departed Keppinger, Johnson
will actually play a lot of positions for the Rays including right field, designated
hitter and first base.
While no one will confuse him
with Roberto Alomar in the field, Kelly Johnson offers a needed power/speed
combo, averaging 20 homers and 14.3 steals the last three seasons. He’ll need to work with Rays hitting coach
Derek Shelton to make more contact as his batting average has declined somewhat
in the last three seasons. Like Loney,
Johnson has a knack for triples, with five seasons of five or more. Johnson strikes out more than the Rays would
like (a career 405/829 strikeout-to-walk ratio) but does a great job avoiding
grounding into double plays only 49 in 935 career games.
His former batterymate in
Toronto, shortstop Yunel Escobar, may turn out to have the most impact of any
of the three Rays additions. He has
power (career .282 batting average) and can get on base (career .353 OBP) and
make all the plays from short. His
walk-to-strikeout ratio is 298/366 is outstanding, considering he’s played in
787 games. Escobar has to make Rays
fans excited considering the man he is replacing as every shortstop Elliot
Johnson hit .242-6-33 in 2012 in 123 games and walked a paltry 24 times.
The Rays will be better on
offense in 2013 than they have in years past.
They have added established major league hitters that could hit a
collective .275 which would excite any Rays fan. While the transition into the Rays way will
take some time for these veterans, they will prevent opposing pitchers by going
through the Rays lineup as easily, as they all put the bat on the ball. On the quick turf of Tropicana, they’re just
what the Rays need –less strikeouts, more hits.
No comments:
Post a Comment