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Showing posts with label how to dominate fantasy football. Show all posts
Showing posts with label how to dominate fantasy football. Show all posts

Friday, September 21, 2012

Week 3 NFL / Fantasy Football: Bigfoot Sightings/Warm Up the Trading Block


Greetings and salutations fantasy owners--what a crazy week..Julio Jones and Larry Fitzgerald, guys at WR commonly drafted after Megatron, combined for five catches for 15 yards in Week 2 and their teams won both games.  Some guys like Fitzgerald have straight up disappeared in fantasy football.  In the sake of finding these apparitions, we’ll call this article the Bigfoot article because there are several fantasy players that are rumored to be in the NFL, scoring points for your team but they haven’t been sighted in years.  After quiet Week 1 and Week 2’s these guys are in danger of being relegated to old wives talesdom.  However, since drafted highly in your league they are rumored to exist and keeping with the theme of a “sighting” we’ll go over the likelihood that you will see these players in all their point-scoring, team-winning, confidence-building glory.

Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions
Stafford In a Laugher?
Where has the real Matthew Stafford gone? In the first two games, the 2011 version of Stafford would have likely put up 700 yards and 6 touchdowns against the Rams and the 49ers (He actually put up 699 yards and 7 touchdowns at this point in 2011).  Stafford opened 2012 with a 300-yard, 3 interception performance against the Rams secondary that features Janoris Jenkins, and who else? The 49ers game, he understandably put up less stats but Megatron hasn’t even scored yet! His 73.2 QB Rating will get a boost with a visit to Tennessee, who hasn’t been competitive and has a slew of issues on offense and defense.  Stafford will face a Titans secondary that was carved up by Brady and Rivers in back-to-back weeks. The Lions don’t have a certified threat on the ground, so the Titans maybe keep this close thanks to a not-so-likely resurgence from Chris Johnson, which is actually good news for Stafford owners.  In an unexpected shootout, the Georgia gunslinger will keep firing away and will finish north of 250 with 2 touchdowns or more but no picks.
Sighting Possibility:  LIKELY

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals
Kolb (not) giving him Fitz?
What in the world is the deal with Fitzgerald? A perennial Pro Bowl wide receiver that averages 76.8 a game over his career has two catches for five yards in 2012? One main culprit; one being a quarterback, Kevin Kolb who may or may not start Week 3 against the Eagles, not being able to connect at all with Fitzgerald, really since Arizona acquired Kolb in 2011.   Fitzgerald was able to go for 7-146-2 last year with John Skelton lining up behind center.  Strange that Fitzgerald’s fantasy value would be tied to such a mediocre talent as John Skelton but that underscores how not in sync the Kolb-Fitzgerald chemistry is.  Fantasy owners should monitor the Cardinals QB situation for Week 3 against Philadelphia.  This would be a bigger issue in the NFL (not fantasy) if the Cardinals weren’t 2-0 coming off a shocking win against New England in Foxboro.  Nnamdi Asomugha and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie await either way, but Fitzgerald owners are going to get a middling performance at best from Fitzgerald.  Arizona can’t run and the Eagles atrocious run defense of 2011 has gotten much better.
Sighting Possibility: SOMEWHAT LIKELY

Ryan Matthews, RB, San Diego Chargers
Charged Up
Ryan Matthews needs to shake off the injury prone-fragile label in Week 3 to justify his really obscene average draft position in 2012.  Although Jackie Battle, Ronnie Brown and Curtis Brinkley have held the fort for a 2-0 squad Ryan Matthews will probably get the lion’s share of carries to test an Atlanta run defense that surrendered 152 to Kansas City and 118 to Denver, including a buck thirteen to Willis McGahee.  The Chargers are going to try to run the ball and have Rivers throw to Malcom Floyd, Robert Meachem and Antonio Gates deep off play action.  Start Matthews as a RB2 but don’t go overboard thinking he’s going to go ham first week back.  It took him awhile to get going in 2011, but this Sunday he may make a play or two in the passing game, an area where’s he’s underrated.  Expect 80 yards rushing or so and a touchdown and 30 receiving yards or so, which in most of my leagues gets 17 points. That is decent production, but Matthews has the skills for much more going forward; he’s a must-start when healthy because I said so (and I drafted him 4th overall in one league).
Sighting Possibility: LIKELY

Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans
Everybody Trades Chris?
Draft time this year I vouched for Chris Johnson. Ok, vouched is a stretch, but I held me nose and took him second in a keeper league over McFadden and Megatron. He is an Orlando guy, raised very close to where my mother-in-law resides to this day.  He has made more exciting plays by simply being way too freaking fast.  Now I want to trade Chris.  Really..has there been a more disappointing fantasy 1,000-yard rushing season then his 2011 season? Even more disconcerting but not wholly unexpected, is the pain and torment of watching Chris Johnson get off to another dreadful start in 2012.  The Chris Johnson debacle will likely forever change the way fantasy owners view running backs receiving large contracts when its draft day.  He simply isn’t getting it done.  There are bad offensive lines, to be sure, but when you’re that quick and agile, at what point do you simply head forward for two yards instead of keep trying to cutback, cutback, cutback.  He’s pressing, sure, and the offensive line is guessing and the quarterback is hurt(ing) my feelings.  Tennessee has been the least competitive team in the NFL so far.   Ok, so now the positives. They will eventually either get a healthy Locker or Hasselbeck will provide some semblance of quarterback play, right?  Kenny Britt will open things up and with continued improved play from Jared Cook and if Nate Washington and Kendall Wright are your #2 and #3 things have to open up right? Detroit’s defensive line is vulnerable to draws and other delay handoffs, inviting Ndominant & Co. up the field, and letting them take themselves out of the play.  That works so much better when the defense has to respect the balanced Titans' attack-- which has been anything but the case so far.  But there is hope; delays out of the shotgun represent the type of play that Chris Johnson has broke open for so many big runs in his career.  All it takes is one . . but Tennessee will probably be playing catch up against the Lions, forcing them to throw, so the receiving game for CJ2K is going to have to be a saving grace.  Although looking at the schedule in early September, the Titans probably thought they could very well be 0-2 at this point, the team isn’t looking too good. Now back to CJ-please-gimme-1K, my guess is 45 yards rushing and 30 receiving with no trips to the end zone. This would represent encouragement for owners contemplating straight up trading him for Tim Biakabatuka.. Stay tuned.
Sighting Possibility: UNLIKELY

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

NFL Week 2 Fantasy News: What the @#$! Just Happened?


Unbelievable was the word for the NFL Week 2.  Let’s recap from a fantasy perspective.  TheStandardOne  likes to keep it positive, but I would be remiss if we didn’t recap some of the things we all thought we’re going to happen and didn’t.  Then we’ll get into the gold mines for Week 3.
Big Disappointments We Kinda Expected
Chris Johnson, RB, Titans: Unfortunately, CJ0K is doing a rendition of last year’s pathetic start so far in 2012.  Against a decent San Diego rushing defense, Johnson rushed for 17 yards on eight carries and caught 2 passes.  That simply won’t cut it.  Traditional fantasy owners are losing patience with Chris Johnson, although the Titans run blocking has been mostly to blame.  Weekly owners and daily fantasy gamers should take a show-and-prove approach with him against the Detroit Lions in Week 3.
Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Matt Forte’s track record against the Packers was less than stellar, but the resurgent Packers run defense injured the Bears running back in the game.  He had a decent line to that point (7 carries for 31 yards, 4 catches for 49 yards) so he’s now unsure for Week 3 with a suspected high ankle sprain.  Forte’s injury not withstanding, even more disconcerting is Michael Bush’s expanding role.  Look for other options for Week 3 when the Bears play the St. Louis Rams.  Bush may be a decent RB2 or Flex if Forte can’t go.
Disappointments from Guys We Didn’t Expect:
Dezappearing Act?
Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Where did Dez go? Starting to become a pattern with second-half disappearances.  Not ready to completely abandon him and has a matchup against the Bucs in Week 3. The Bucs secondary is still giving up yards to Eli as we speak.  
Jamaal Charles, RB, Chiefs: I like Jamaal Charles--just knew he would run roughshod over the Bills...His performance Sunday was not at all what we had in mind! 6 carries for 3 yards and similar knee issues from last year-ugh.  Next up a visit to the Big Easy, whose Saints are more generous to opposing runners- he’s a shade below an RB 1 if healthy.  Be cautious utilizing him as a RB2--Hillis got 11 carries and this Shaun Draughn fellow isn’t going anywhere.  The Chiefs need to be more competitive to make Charles valuable.
Julio Jones, WR, Falcons; This 4 catch- 14 yard effort may have been the most damaging to a lot of fantasy Monday night owners with the week's victory hanging in the balance.  He dropped a touchdown in the first half and then turned into fantasy vapor. Two words: Champ Bailey.  The talented wide receiver won’t have a repeat game like that all season—next up the Chargers in San Diego.  Roddy White will still be a primary target for Matt Ryan.
Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, Giants: Bradshaw was supposed to run free against the Bucs in this game but injured his foot early.  He’s not doing anything to shake the injury-prone label and fantasy owners must be ready for the wait-and-see approach with him all season long.
A Look Ahead:
Demaryius Thomas, WR, Broncos: He represents a must-start option at wide receiver, in case anyone was wondering.  The Broncos will face the undefeated Houston Texans, who haven’t played anyone (wins vs. Miami and Jacksonville) but could find themselves trailing in Houston.  Thomas is a beast after the catch, utilizing screens from Peyton Manning.  Deploy and collect the checks with Demaryius, who needs a catchy nickname.
Far From Bush League
Reggie Bush, RB, Dolphins: All that offseason talk about Reggie Bush receiving a lesser workload was just talk, especially after his 172 yards rushing and two touchdowns against the Oakland Raiders.  If last year's 1,000 yard-season didn't dispel misconceptions about his viability and durability as a legitimate NFL starting-caliber running back, then Week 2 did.  Reggie Bush is a must-start even against the Jets, who struggled with a similar type runner in C.J. Spiller in Week 1.  Bigger-name running backs are falling to injury and struggling in other aspects, so  fantasy teams that go with Bush are getting a precious commodity right now in the NFL: A breakaway RB threat with no injury/performance issues.  He’s an ideal RB2.
Alex Smith, QB, 49ers: Alex Smith is turning into a low-end QB1 right before our eyes.  He has been a steady fantasy contributor so far because he has lots of weapons and doesn’t turn the ball over.  He won’t turn in many 300-yard efforts but many of these 300 yards efforts from higher ranked quarterbacks don’t score the same points because of the aforementioned turnovers.  Ride the wave while you can. Up next: A trip to the Metrodome against the Vikings secondary, who made Blaine Gabbert look good in Week 1 and were handled by rookie Andrew Luck in Week 2.
Trends and Other Notes
(And for fantasy owners that have a revolving door at fantasy DEF)…
The Titans can’t run the ball right now (or do anything else on offense for that matter).
The Buccaneers can’t stop the pass right now.
The Cardinals defense is making noise.
The Seahawks will continue to be a better, different team at home.
The Jaguars will struggle on offense.
The Browns may not be complete garbage on offense.