Week 2: NFL Matchups That Should Be on Your Fantasy Radar

                                 Chicago at Green Bay

Big Game for Brandon

This Thursday night matchup is making fantasy owners salivate.  Finally, it appears that Chicago can put some plays together in the passing game, disposing of the speed smurf approach at wide receiver.  Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery, if that suspect O-line gives Cutler time, are going to give the Packers secondary problems.  These are big dudes that present a size disadvantage for Green Bay.  I like all three and not feeling the running game as much.  Forte and Bush won’t be able to get the running game going against the Packers front seven which was embarrassed last week (186 yards surrendered to the 49ers).  Bush may be able to vulture a goal line TD.  Of course, the flip side to this matchup is that Chicago isn’t very good on defense, especially the secondary (perhaps without Charles Tillman), which Andrew Luck was able to throw for 300+.  

GB vs. Chicago = Finley Shine Time

The Packers strength is spreading you out and letting Aaron Rodgers go to work.  He’ll be missing Greg Jennings and that is disconcerting for the Pack—Jennings runs exceptional routes and now they’ll slide James Jones into that position, keep Jordy at split end and work Cobb in the slot. The loss of Jennings means more targets for Finley who was a steal in most drafts this year.  He was targeted 11 times against the 49ers and loves playing against the Monsters of the Mid-dlingdefense-Way.  All said,  that’s plenty of talent for Rodgers who can run by himself or try to get the running game involved. It won't work; I didn’t refer to Cedric Benson because he will not gather over sixty yards in this game. Rodgers is going to have to be on point for the Pack to get to 1 and 1.  The Bears have the guns to get in a shoot-out and have a special teams advantage.

Adore:  Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Jordy Nelson, Brandon Marshall, Jermichael Finley

Meh: Randall Cobb, Alshon Jeffery, Cedric Benson, Michael Bush, James Jones, Bears D

Avoid: Matt Forte, Packers D

                           New Orleans at Carolina

Don't Forget DeAngelo

Superman Cam wasn’t even Clark Kent in Week 1 against a rejuvenated Buccaneers defense.  He gets New Orleans on the road next with Daily Show in the lineup (hopefully). But I’d avoid Stewart and bet on a healthy dose of De Angelo Williams. The Panthers need to get Newton under center and get the power running game going with Stewart or Tolbert but Williams will be the benefactor.  He’s the back making the bucks in the 704 and offensive coordinator Rob Chudzinski needs to get him going.  Drew Brees who is more pissed than anyone this week will need to balance the attack against a decent Panthers secondary but a pretty mediocre run defense. 

Sproles and Graham: An Unfair Advantage

Brees will still gather major points by not turning the ball over, something he has yet to do without Sean Payton on the sideline.  Given a reduced margin for error he will look to Jimmy Graham and Darren Sproles to create mismatches in space and headaches for the Panthers defense. This will be a wild one.  Expect some screens and draws to get the Saints backs going and a concerted effort to get DeAngelo Williams involved.  I suspect Marques Colston won't be as involved as Lance Moore (aka Pauly D) but the Saints are going to go with Sproles and Graham, its bread and butter time (not peanut butter and jelly time). Unfortunately there are so many Saints running backs that can do damage against a shaky run D for Carolina that it is hard to recommend one (except for the hybrid Sproles).  I really like Lance Moore to work on Josh Norman, the Panthers young CB2.  Neither defense is going to be fantasy viable all year, honestly.

Adore: Cam Newton, Drew Brees, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, De Angelo Williams, Lance Moore

Meh: Jonathan Stewart, Marques Colston, Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram

Avoid: Greg Olsen, Brandon LaFell, New Orleans D, Carolina D

                                 Kansas City at Buffalo

Charles is Always in Charge

Although Buffalo has revamped their defensive line, Charles-N-Charge had no problems scooting for 87 against the Atlanta Falcons (not too shabby  coming off an ACL injury).  The Buffalo secondary is tempting for Cassel-to-Bowe and newfound slot menace Dexter McCluster and Charles will make big plays in the receiving game as well.  He’s a RB1 in this matchup. Buffalo’s C.J Spiller was even added in Kazakh fantasy leagues- meaning he’s got universal appeal in this matchup.  The Chiefs play decent run defense and features a banged-up secondary.  Unfortunately, the Bills WR Stevie Johnson is banged up and their WR2 David Nelson is out for the year. 

Stevie Is Serious This Time

I’d bet Stevie Johnson shakes the groin injury off and gets a score with 90 yards or so.  Other than that Donald Jones, Brad Smith and T.J Graham don’t scare anyone.  Expect Spiller to get involved in the passing game as well.  These teams will turn the ball over in this game which is why Cassel or Fitzpatrick are better left unused. Kansas City will air it out more so than Buffalo and have a few more weapons when they do.  Dwayne Bowe isn’t a must-start but he’s got to be salivating at the chance to face a Buffalo secondary that made the Jets look like the 1999 Rams. Dexter McCluster who I’m sold on, will work the underneath and Cassel will look to him plenty.  There may even be a Tony Moeaki or Jon Baldwin sighting.

Adore: C.J Spiller, Jamaal Charles, Stevie Johnson, 
Kansas City D
Meh: Dexter McCluster, Dwayne Bowe, Shaun Draughn, Matt Cassel, Buffalo D
Avoid: Peyton Hills, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Donald Jones 

NFL Week 1 Fantasy News: Add Some Explosion to Your Team

Week 1 is in the books, ladies and gentlemen, and there are a few notable performances that fantasy football players may want to take notice.  There were some key injuries, things we thought and things we didn’t want to know.  Let’s recap and talk about how you can find value in guys that might still be available in your leagues.

The Future in D.C.

Robert Griffin, QB, Washington Redskins

The Washington Redskins quarterback was amazing.  He carved up the Saints defense in Sunday’s 40-32 victory.  His 320 passing yards were the most ever by a rookie quarterback in a winning effort and had an 88-yard touchdown throw to Pierre Garcon that was a preview of things to come.  He made plays with his feet as expected (1o rushes for 42 yards)  but was accurate throwing on the run and has some speedy receivers to work with.  Unless the Saints defense in going to be atrocious all year (which is possible), RGIII is going to have a chance to be a great value as a fantasy starting quarterback.  Next up a Rams defense that let Matt Stafford throw 300+ on them but did manage to intercept three passes; I predict Griffin will run more and finish with 225 yards passing and a score or two but will rush for a touchdown.  That’s plenty of potential points off the wire. At worse, he is a high end backup and a great keeper option in those types of leagues.

See C.J Run

C. J Spiller, RB, Buffalo Bills

This recommendation is based upon talent and opportunity although with Fred Jackson out at least three weeks with injury, Spiller is “leaking out” as a great play in Week 2.  He ran for 169 yards on 14 carries in Week 1 against the Jets and added two catches for 25 yards as well.  All this against a Jets defense that is darn good at stopping the run.  Spiller only has Tashard Choice and newly-signed Johnny White (who?) behind him and he is a real threat in the passing game as well.  He’s lightning quick with game breaking speed. He held down the fort last year after Jackson got hurt, and performed admirably; he was supposed to receive plenty of touches this year anyway.  The Kansas City Chiefs await in Week 2 in what could be a tough matchup.  Spiller will likely give you close to 100 total yards in this one with a better matchup at Cleveland in Week 3. With Jackson out for extended time, don’t hesitate to grab C.J. Spiller.

The Jets' New High Flyer  

Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets

The Jets passing offense was supposed to be anemic and I know it’s early but in Week 1, the Jets unleashed their rookie Stephen Hill on the Buffalo Bills secondary to the tune of 5 catches, nearly 100 yards and two touchdowns.  With the Buffalo Bills focused on Santonio Holmes, the only proven receiving threat on the Jets the last couple of years, Hill used his speed and height (6”4) to dominate.  Hill was a rising commodity in the 2012 NFL Draft last April, with some pundits feeling he would have been a late 1^st rounder.  The Jets, who sorely need production at their WR2 position, would love for Hill to keep this up.  He gets Pittsburgh, Miami, and San Francisco the next three weeks, teams that will likely force the Jets to go airborne.  He’s at least a starter for the Jets and at worse a WR3 for your roster at this point.

Fantasy Baseball Playoffs Are Here - Unclaimed Gold - 5 Players to Grab

While the NFL kicks off Week 1, let’s not forget that some of you fantasy gamers out there are starting your football seasons while still managing your fantasy baseball teams.   Fantasy baseball playoffs are beginning or are happening right now and we don’t want you owners losing on the account of fantasy football starting up! Here is some great fantasy advice to help you multitask.  If you’re like me, constantly in your phone, checking scores, here are some guys likely to be on your waiver wire that can propel you to glory.

Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Pittsburgh Pirates

There may not be a more infuriating (okay, that’s a little heavy) frustrating player to own in fantasy baseball than the talented Pirates third baseman.  His day and night splits notwithstanding; he’s got the Cubs this weekend with three day games in a favorable matchup (seriously can anyone name a Cubs pitcher?) Grab him off the wire is he’s available.  Home runs are not cheap in baseball and he's hit 27 already.

Daniel Straily, SP, Oakland Athletics

Straily is a recent call up that was leading Triple A in strikeouts at the time.  The recent headshot to a resurgent, yet injury-prone Brandon McCarthy means two starts for Straily this week.  If you’re in a fantasy baseball league that scores big for wins, innings and strikeouts, do yourself a favor and scoop Straily up.  He’s got the Angels on the road on Tuesday and the Baltimore Orioles at home on Sunday; a very winnable duo given how well Oakland has been playing of late.

Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers

Fantasy owners drool over guys with 20 home run and 20 stolen base potential.  Gomez has always been lightning quick; the power has steadily formed this season.  He’s been up and down in both production and order in lineup in Milwaukee but has hit in every situation.  His batting average is vaguely a minus; think B.J. Upton but unowned in most leagues. He hits in a much better lineup as well.

Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia Phillies

He was injured and out of sight, out of mind, as the saying goes.  The non-contending Phillies are working the veteran back slowly, which they should but he is hitting .340 at a position where .260 can constitute a career year.  The Phillies are going nowhere, but they aren’t laying down and they have a lot of prideful veterans on that team that can still rake.  He will hit with runners on and knock in runs; grab him now before everyone realizes he’s healthy again.  He could hit another handful of home runs and help you win key fantasy matchups at catcher.

Ross Detweiler, SP, Washington Nationals

Since the shutdown of Stephen Strasburg, there has been a flood of media attention to the Washington Nationals team.  There are good and bad reasons for shutting down your ace in the middle of a playoff chase but the gaping hole left in his benching caused many a headache for fantasy owners.  They knew the day was coming but it was still a surprise for many.  Soften the blow by picking up Detweiler, a big 6’5 Doug Fister-type who has decent control (42 walks in 145 innings in 2012) to make up for the lack of strikeouts (89).   His ERA is on the low side of 3.5 as well (3.23).  The Washington Nationals have surpassed even their own expectations with almost 90 wins before mid-September.  Just like in real baseball, pitching normally makes the difference in fantasy championships-- make sure you’re well armed.

2012 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers, fresh off a humiliating 2011 season which saw them lose the season’s final ten games and finish dead last in the NFL in points allowed, are going old-school in their approach for 2012.  Gone and trying to be forgotten is coach Raheem Morris (Redskins DB Coach) and his laid-back, trusting coaching style.  Folks forget this team was 4-2, albeit an ugly 4-2, before that fateful trip to London started the team on a tailspin.  The whole team was shook and had lost faith in their field general and basically quit.

Buccaneers Coach Greg Schiano

Enter Greg Schiano, although a .500 record during an 11-year career at Big East ne’er do-well Rutgers; he gained a reputation for hard-nose, physical team that relied on the running game to control tempo.  The Buccaneers threw the ball more than they wanted to in 2011, partly because the team trailed for so much of the season.  That won’t be the case this year.

Schiano immediately jettisoned some headaches (TE Winslow, FS Tanard Jackson, WR Dezmon Briscoe) and underperforming players (Jeff Faine, Brian Price) and quickly made the team more in his image with players like rookie running back Doug Martin (more on him later).  As many experts will tell you, it’s all good if your team buys into what you’re selling.  And nowhere have the changes been more apparent so far than on defense; the preseason has seen the first-team defense match up well with the first-team offenses in the four games that don’t count.

But you gotta start somewhere.  It’s back to basics in the Bay Area for 2012.  The team tickled not tackled last year on run defense, finishing dead last in yards allowed (2,497) and rushing touchdowns allowed (26—seven more than the 31^st team, the Buffalo Bills, with 19).  As long suffering Bucs fans know, they are used to seeing bottom-half offenses; but the apathy and just general suckitude on run defense sealed the deal for Mr. Morris.  Run defense is all about want-to and Schiano has made it clear from Day 1 that this guys he runs out there will have plenty of that.  Of course, when the Saints and Falcons and resurgent Carolina Panthers are in your division, you are going to need to stop them from running and then score some points on your own. 

Vincent Jackson = Elevated Offense? 

The Buccaneers finally acquired a legitimate WR1 when they signed Vincent Jackson.  He should have an awesome trickle-down effect on the offense.  Mike Williams may be more suited to be a WR2 after his 11.5 yards per catch effort of 2011.  He lacked the physicality to beat press coverage and looked lackadaisical at times.   Vincent Jackson brings an upgrade to the wide receiver core athletically and mentally.  Sometimes when a whole unit is a homegrown, young unit and lacks a veteran star like VJax, they can think their better than they really are –for lack of comparison.  Teaming him with Mike Williams, Arrelious Benn, Preston Parker and Sammie Stroughter—the wide receiver unit is now believed to be a strength on this team.  There aren’t any all-world secondaries in the NFC South so when Josh Freeman wants to summon the aerial attack there is big-play potential.  Dallas Clark will be part of a deep pass-catching group but coming off major injury-plagued seasons in 2011 and 2011 hasn’t given an indication on what he has got left in the old gas tank.  He may surprise as well.

 Doug Martin

Passing game aside, this team will establish the run first and foremost.  The second big acquisition mammoth Carl Nicks from the Saints is probably already guaranteed a Pro Bowl spot.  He is massive.  The Buccaneers, with the signing of Nicks, have the highest paid offensive line in the league; that line took a hit when Davin Joseph (who I’ve met at Whiskey Park before—real nice guy) injured his knee in the preseason and will be out for the season.   This team last year, averaged a respectable yards per carry (4.2) which says a lot about current second string RB LeGarrette Blount’s ability to hurdle and drag tacklers.  A unique runner as you will find in the NFL, he supposedly lacks other key skills (catching and blocking) to the point that the Bucs drafted Doug Martin, a jack-of-all-trades runner from Boise State.  Doug Martin isn’t overly strong or elusive, but does possess great vision and agility (6.69 s in the NFL cone drill) and blocks, catches well.  He has been compared to guys like Matt Forte for his vision, and guys like Curtis Martin and Roger Craig for his lunchpail mentality.  I imagine him as a guy who will bleed every yard possible, and prove quite reliable in the passing game.  1,300 and total yards and 10 TDs are well in reach for him for all my fantasy heads.  Just one caution, he did not play against major college opponents, although looked decent against the SEC’s Georgia Bulldogs in 2011.  

Josh Freeman 

Of course, I saved the most critical piece of the offense for last, quarterback of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Josh Freeman, who had plenty what-the-heck moments last year. The 22 interceptions didn’t break the Bucs team record (Vinny Testaverde threw 35 in 1987) but it raised the legitimate concern that 2010 (nearly 3,500 yards / 25 touchdowns and 6 interceptions) was a fluke and that Freeman would never place himself among the game’s elite at the quarterback position.   Add to that Freeman, some fans would say, still looks shaky in the 2012 preseason.

Relax ya'll.  The Josh Freeman we saw in 2010 wasn’t as good as his stats indicated, and he isn't as garbage as the Freeman as we saw in 2011.  The truth lies somewhere in the middle.  Coach Schiano will not tolerate turnovers from his leader; ball protection will be placed at a premium (another plus in the Doug Martin category).  It is hard to imagine winning in the NFL without having to air it out some of the time, especially if one takes a look at all the proven opponent quarterbacks on the 2012 Buccaneers schedule.  Freeman will set up play-action more this season and use his legs more, ala 2010.  Those are the strengths of his game—he is never going to be Drew Brees, throwing fifty times a game from the pocket.  Freeman will roll out, buy time by running, throw the ball away and resist turnovers.  His mechanics will be fine; for big quarterbacks there’s a lot more movement to reign in, if you look at Roethlisberger or Flacco, they have had times where their mechanics have not looked impressive.  This offense under Mike Sullivan will likely employ more two-back three-wide receiver formations which puts more playmakers on the field at once. 

 

Adrian Clayborn

When the team sets up shop on defense, you will likely notice the Buccaneers blitzing a lot more than in previous seasons.  Finishing dead last in sacks in 2011 (23) and with the juggernauts in the division, the Bucs can’t afford to sit back and let opposing signal callers get comfortable.  Their is some talent here; right defensive end Adrian Clayborn, the former first-rounder, led the team with eight sacks in 2011 and  left end Michael Bennett is stout against the run.  The Bucs have invested a lot on their defensive line and they looked terrible in 2011, especially during the losing streak.  Schiano jettisoned guys who didn’t show fire on the line, and drafted Lavonte David and Mark Barron to assist corralling runners that do make it past the line for 2012.  Lavonte David, while undersized, will be the key to the defense in 2012.  He will likely need to shadow guys like Cam Newton, while serving as the nickel backer on passing down, covering tight ends and backs out of the flat.  He and safety Mark Barron show great anticipation as defenders, these guys can diagnose plays quickly and have the speed and agility to make stops—something Mason Foster can only learn from.   The Buccaneers have the tools to at least be a middle-tier defense this year. 

The Buccaneers special teams got a lot of opportunities to hone their craft in 2011, and punter Michael Koenen and kicker Connor Barth were both worthy of Pro Bowl bids.  Special team return duties will likely be handled by rookie running back Michael Smith and returning wideout Sammie Straughter.  At this time, Preston Parker will not handle returns, something that he struggled with last year and early in the preseason this year.

The Buccaneers have been picked to finish last in the division by the majority of pundits, and  expected record-wise to finish around 6-10 this year.  Bucs fans like me won’t settle for anything less than 7-9. This was a 10-6 team two years ago; the schedule while not as favorable, does present the team with 8-8 as a possibility.  The opener at home against Carolina is critical.  If the Bucs can get Cam Newton making mistakes and started on the sophomore jinx nice and early, they can pound the rock to victory against a porous Carolina run defense.  Make no mistake: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be vastly improved in 2012.

2012 Prediction, 8 wins, 8 losses.

W- CAROLINA

L - @ NY Giants

L -@ Dallas

W -WASHINGTON

Bye

W- KANSAS CITY

W-NEW ORLEANS

W- @ Minnesota

W- @ Oakland

L - SAN DIEGO

L -@ Carolina

L - ATLANTA

L -@ Denver

L -PHILADELPHIA

L -@ New Orleans

W -ST. LOUIS

W -@ Atlanta

Boston’s Big 3 Scapepgoats -- Trade Smacks of Leadership Lack

Admit it, Red Sox Nation.  The trade of the Boston Big 3 (Gonzalez, Crawford and Beckett) scapegoats made no sense and reveals that the Boston brass don’t know what they’re doing.  We get it—money is no issue for Boston. They didn’t know what they were doing when they signed John Lackey or Crawford, honestly, to ludicrous long deals.  Dice-K makes Harry Houdini seem omnipresent.  They probably miss Adrian Beltre. They may have underestimated what they had in the cupboard when they let Papelbon walk.  But to trade a healthy, albeit underperforming, Adrian Gonzalez, (.301-15-85) who for many years was considered  the Red Sox’s birthright shows a lack of vision and at worst, a misconstrued reality of who the Red Sox are, what division they play in and what their fans will tolerate.

The Red Sox front office seems to think “let the young guys play and grow” approach is going to work in Boston.  Truth is, it is going to get everyone fired.  Fenway isn’t meant for small ball; it’s meant for guys to get on base hit moon shots that are outs everywhere else and pitch just well enough to win 9-6 slugfests with New York and Tampa, to a lesser extent.  But that reality, the reality that served them so well in 2004 and 2007 was ignored or forgotten.  Maybe those histories of those teams were rewritten, misleading the faithful into believing those were “homegrown” squads.  Yeah, right.  The Red Sox are at their best with healthy speed at the top and mashers in the middle; everyone needs to be able to draw a walk and play defense.

Even a more telling failure of leadership is Boston’s devil-may-care approach to crafting a pitching staff to shut down opposing lineups. The 2012 Red Sox suck because they give up the second most runs (625) in the American League (Minnesota is last with a whopping 675, odd considering that it is a pitcher’s park).  They are actually decent in defense (76 errors as of 8/30 – good for middle pack in the AL) but they can’t pitch (4.44 ERA-11^th in the AL) no starters with an ERA under four-and-a-half, and they probably didn’t solve that problem with the acquisition of Rubby De La Rosa (coming off Tommy John) and a prospect that went 6-8 at Double AA (Allen Webster).  In a division where either teams can mash (New York, Toronto) or prevent you from mashing (Tampa, Baltimore) you better be able to do at least one of them. Boston, by pulling out on their all-ins on A-Gon and CC have now hampered their ability to do both.

Why this huge theoretical change? To suit Bobby Valentine?  While he has shown an ability to motivate young squads short-term what the hell has he ever done to justify a complete theoretical organizational change to small ball? Because with James Loney and Jerry Sands that’s exactly what you’re getting.  Bobby has been more effective at alienating players, staff and management quicker than anyone else in recent MLB managerial history.  This guy has been in and out of the MLB passed over for jobs he was probably more qualified for and consequently has managed in Japan, which his no-nonsense, prickly approach may be better suited for.  If the plan is to fire Bobby V all along, then what could A-Gon, CC and Beckett done in five months to piss off management to this extent.  While Crawford is injured and may be handling the injury not as expertly as the fan base may desire, he has never, ever, been considered a slacker or a problem in the clubhouse.  It may piss people off, but shouldn’t be considered injury-prone if Jacoby Ellsbury is still given a pass.  Did CC upset the Fenway faithful with the whole complaining about the cop incident? Is there a feeling that these guys were outsiders, they weren’t real Red Sox? Gimme a break.  Why let Bobby Valentine convince management in this about-face that those guys were the problem when reportedly seventeen players had/have an issue with Mr. Valentine’s (mis)management? Ask Kevin Youkilis about Bobby V. 

Admit it, Red Sox nation.  The trade was a reactionary, cathartic, ham-handed attempt to placate either a prickly, not-really-proven-that-he-can-build-long-term manager or a fan-base that has a sense of misplaced nativism.   The Red Sox, again, work best when they address starting pitching and keep the offense stacked with veterans.  Small ball didn’t work in 2010 and it won’t work in the future.

2012 Pittsburgh Steelers- Causes for Concern but Still a Solid Contender

NFL Preview – Pittsburgh Steelers 2012

Causes for Concern but Still a Solid Contender

The Pittsburgh Steelers enter this season with a bit of uncertainty hanging over their heads with the pain of last year’s overtime defeat at the hands of the Denver Broncos.  Their defense, while still stingy against the run, is susceptible to spread passing attacks and is getting a little long in the tooth.  Key playmakers such as James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, Casey Hampton are getting a step slower which makes recent draft picks and other additions on defense more important than ever.  You see, it is all about the linebackers in “Blitzburgh” and the Steelers continued dominance has relied on their ability to reload and not rebuild their linebacking core.  From Kevin Greene to Greg Lloyd, to lesser knowns like Kendrell Bell and James Farrior, running the ball and seven-step drops were all thwarted by an ever-changing, yet always fearsome army of linebackers rushing from all angles in the Steelers 3-4 defense.  That may not be true anymore for Pittsburgh and teams will have plenty of tape, watching when Arian Foster and Ben Tate carved them up last year-- and they gave up 150+ rushing yards two other times in 2011.  Their hated rival, the Baltimore Ravens, beat them twice for Pete’s sake!

Hold on; say the Pittsburgh faithful, “If (Free Safety) Ryan Clark had played that [Denver] game, yada, yada...” True, to a point. However, slippages were noticeable all season particularly with Troy Polamalu one of the most loved and dynamic Steelers ever.  Last season, when forced to cover in the slot or in “space”, while still a feared defender, he did not exhibit  the same one-on-one man coverage skills to shut down an entire side of the field, like his All-Pro contemporary, Ed Reed in Baltimore.  Teams used three, four and five receivers to get Troy in one-on-ones in space—we saw this in Super Bowl XLV against Green Bay (although the “Polamolecules” were not at 100%).  There is a recipe to defeating Pittsburgh at least on defense, but their offense has been hard to stop in recent years, much more than the days of Neil O’Donnell and Bubby Brister.

Unfortunately the offense has just as many question marks.    Ben Roethlisberger is still playing at a high level and they have some depth and speed at wideout. However, new albeit prickly, offensive coordinator Todd Haley brings his run-oriented offense into town, coming in with a mixed record in a few years with the Chiefs.  They’ll run more in Pittsburgh, and with quite a few guys delivering the mail.  Starter, Rashard Mendenhall is still out until at least October, by all accounts, still dealing with his nasty ACL sprain of last year.  Isaac Redman, who filled in quite ably in the latter games and in the playoff against Denver, will likely deal with a hip injury all year and hasn’t shown the flexibility in the passing game to be true three-down option.   Young backs Jonathan Dwyer and Chris Rainey were prolific backs in college, albeit with very different skill sets; the bigger Dwyer comes from a option offense at Georgia Tech that routinely rushed from 300 yards a game and Rainey is a scatback from pass-friendly Florida.  Pittsburgh fans would hope that Dwyer could a poor man’s Arian Foster, as he is a kind of slashing, one-cut runner where Rainey is ultra-quick with some toughness a la a poor man’s Darren Sproles.  These are all best case scenarios however, with both having limited NFL experience.  Reliable tight end Heath Miller will still be called upon to block well and catch around fifty balls.

Speedster and Pro Bowler Mike Wallace is also a cause of concern for Steeler fans, on top of his fading production in the stretch run in 2011, is his return from a lengthy holdout in the offseason.  How will his role change in the new offense?  Will Antonio Brown, who had over 1,100 yards in 2011, become Ben’s go-to-guy?  This offense will still need to throw the ball to win (as all teams do in this new era).  The Steelers wideouts tend to be fast, quick, and slight of stature--they excel in getting deep and exploiting coverage after Ben rolls out and buys time.  Haley needs to not try to fit square pegs in round holes on offense.  With a bevy of talented running backs, they may need to pass to set up the run and get Rainey in space on screens and draws.  This will open up Wallace who has the wheels to blow the top off of defenses, as he did for much of early 2011. Reliable tight end Heath Miller will still be called upon to block well and catch around fifty balls.  Overall, this unit will again be at least a Top 15 offense, perhaps falling slightly due to some growing pains and offensive line struggles.  If they keep Ben upright, he will still dissect defenses with his trademark high yards per attempt, an underrated statistic.

The team’s offensive line got major help in what many think will be the steal of the 2011 NFL draft at pick at 24, when they drafted guard David DeCastro. from Stanford.  Unfortunately he injured his ACL in MCL in the preseason.  The team expects him back sometime later this season.  This will force the team into their annual shuffling of the offensive line; Steeler fans probably can’t remember the last time offensive line was intact without glaring deficiencies, particularly inside. 

Pittsburgh’s defense is still what makes them a contender (fewest points allowed last year in the NFL-227).   Most teams still won’t waste energy trying to line up and play smash mouth football against the likes of Keisel, Harrison, Hampton and young playmakers Ziggy Hood and Lawrence Timmons, although the Houston Texans and Denver Broncos had some success doing so.  When teams try to spread Pittsburgh out, the Steelers have effectively masked holes in the secondary by dialing up Dick LeBeau’s exotic blitzes and this season should be no exception. The Pittsburgh Steelers secondary typically strong at the safety spots and thin at cornerback will also be tested by AFC opponents.  Demaryius Thomas embarrassed them, especially Ike Taylor, all game long in the playoffs last January.  If Ryan Clark, who was sorely missed in that game can retain form and a healthy Troy Polamalu can join hopefully serviceable newcomers Keenan Lewis and Cortez Allen in the secondary they will have enough defense in the back to thwart most passing attacks.   Good news for the Steelers is their rivals in the division don’t have the prolific passing attacks complete with nightmare mismatches at tight end and receivers like other divisions.  They can do what has worked, run the ball a little more, and go 10-6 providing key players stay healthy.  They could get exposed in the playoffs by a team like Houston or New England who can get them out of their blitz-happy comfort zone.  Mike Tomlin is in the elite category of NFL coaches and the Steelers typically surprise when they are overlooked.  It promises to be another season of hard-hitting Pittsburgh football with some new wrinkles on both sides of the ball.  Bottom line, you can expect them to be fighting for a trip to New Orleans this winter among the usual AFC suspects. 

Overall Prediction (10-6) 2^nd in AFC North, AFC Wildcard Team

Risk over Reward: What you should know when drafting RB1 (when the top three RBs are gone)

When it comes to winning fantasy football there are many factors that can contribute to “food on the table” in January or another fruitless year, another wasted buy-in. There are players that get hot late and those that fade down the stretch. Safeguarding against these hot and cold players with surefire picks in your first round is what most owners would prefer, but how many times are you going to draft safe only to watch the schmuck who took a major risk drafting that year get hot and ride the wave to championship glory? Too many times drafting safely leads to 12-1 but that one loss knocking you out, while Mr. 8-7-1 wins the big money. Risky drafting is just that, but you know basically you want to draft talent and value. With the economy still in transition (and that’s putting it nicely) your running back picks, no matter what style of drafting you employ, will need to bear fruit (keeping with the food references) in December, when many fantasy championships are on the line. In most standard league fantasy drafts in 2012, the pecking order goes something like this: the true blue, surefire RB1's-- Arian Foster, Ray Rice, LeSean McCoy--and more and more, quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady and/or Drew Brees (although I can make the case that Brees may not be a great value in top seven, or top ten for that matter.)

The days of going RB-RB-RB in the first three rounds and automatically winning championships are going the way of the dodo bird; the lack of surefire RB1 value beginning at pick four is cause for concern. While one can justify going Rodgers at four because of his otherworldly stats (including low-INT numbers) traditionalists may find risky, but palatable, taking Darren McFadden, Maurice Jones-Drew or Chris Johnson. Fact is, each three of these RB1s have been top guys for the last couple of seasons but have major question marks. The reason you still want a dynamic RB1 with the risk is to win matchups when all other things are equal. Its why some will have no issue drafting Rodgers at 4 or 1 for that matter, because ofthe perceived week-in and week-out they will have a distinct advantage. I don’t like going QB that high-- because to me, a combo of Rodgers-Forte-J. Charles is still not as formidableof a points scoring trio of a Chris Johnson-DeMarco Murray-Eli Manning. Leagues typically aren’t won in the first three rounds anyway because, depth, depth, is paramount because guys are going to get hurt and there are still going to be unfavorable matchups week-in and week-out. Now onto our flawed but fleet footed contestants:

Darren McFadden


Positives: If you want to really be risky and go talent over safety --do yourself a favor, if McFadden is there at mid-1st round, scoop him up and take Mike Goodson in the tenth round--his only RB backup and smallish—so he won’t take goal line carries away. My man, DMac--There is no bigger risk or reward player in fantasy football, his 88.6 rushing yards per contest since 2010 is behind Foster (97.9) and Jones-Drew (97.7) and he averages more receiving yards per game than MJD. Darren McFadden can be the key to your season; he’s a risk but now he’s got a real QB (finally) in Carson Palmer, a real coach and a real GM for the

first time in his career. The Raiders wideouts, led by Darius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore (guys who should also be on your radar) are a fast bunch that will open up the offense for Run DMC. McFadden is a threat on screens and draws so the yards per touch are always there. Combo him up with a safe RB2 like Doug Martin or Frank Gore and watch your commitment to excellence.

Negatives: Darren McFadden, while arguably the most talented of the bunch, is as likely to play a full season as T.O. and Donovan McNabb joining forces and buying a chain of TCBY's. He is frag-gillie; but when healthy he produces rushing and receiving yards at a video game pace—and no more Michael Bush to poach goal line totes; the plan in Oakland is to RunDMC. But he’s still got those same skinny ankles and a 6’2 210 frame that make him a conundrum at picks 4-8. If he’s available at ten he’s far more palatable, because you are likely having a pick in the early second round to hedge your bet. DMac is going in the 20s and 30s in some draft and as early as four in non-keepers standard twelve teamers. Yogurt anyone?

Chris Johnson


Positives: Enter my man Chris Johnson; a true gamebreaker, one play can make his and your day. Injury-resistant, he’s well under 30, and in the middle of the first doesn’t share carries and still caught fifty passes last year on a surprising 9-7 Titans team that was there contending for a playoff spot. Again, like McFadden, the pick at 4-8 needs to be surefire although I’d say CJ2K can break one at any time making the previous twelve carries for twenty-nine yards irrelevant. Ladies and gentlemen, he is a speed merchant who has no qualms about racing Usain Bolt. Perhaps that fire has returned.

Negatives: Started real slow in 2011, finished better. Yards per carry was near two and a half for more than a quarter of a season—not what you want from a top five pick. A former top three fantasy no-brainer and 2,000 yards in a season rusher who inexplicably fell off his normal production in 2011 to just over 1,000 yards and a measly (for him) 4.0 yards per carry. Johnson seemed to lack the ability to break arm tackles last year. Johnson may be the poster child for why NFL general managers are hesitant to give certain running backs long-term deals. CJ2K simply didn't look as hungry and willing to grind out tough yards like he has in All-Pro seasons previous. This year new starting second-year QB Jake Locker, who is quite mobile, may rely on Johnson more in the passing game as well. On paper, this is a decent offense; but head coach Mike Munchak wants to employ the run-and-shoot? Talks of 15-18 carries a game for CJ2K? Worrisome, worrisome, worrisome.


Maurice Jones-Drew

Positives: MJD leaves the experts and analysts puzzled by how this bowling ball continues to put up 4.5+ a carry on an offensively challenged, small-market team that may have the least envious quarterbacking outlook in the National Football League. But there he is, gaining 1,600 yards in 2011 when defenses keyed on him and he still produced. In terms of sheer production and injury avoidance, he is as dependable and productive as any RB in football. If the Jaguars could improve their aerial assault just slightly (read Justin Blackmon and Laurent Robinson) then Jones-Drew could be looking at double-digit scores on the ground a la 2009.

Negatives: The recent situation with Maurice Jones-Drew is slightly troubling, as is the wear and tear (being durable is a sword that seems to cut both ways) as is the emergence of Rashad Jennings, a chic pick in the seventh to ninth rounds. The Jags say MJD will be their third-down back in Week 1 versus the Minnesota Vikings.  If Rashad Jennings  grabs the opportunities and runs with it,  MJD could find himself sharing carries for the duration of 2012.  Unlikely, given their collective resumes, but new regimes like to put their stamp on franchises, as Mr. Khan has opted-in for a handful of "home" games in London.  But Mr. Khan would do well to proceed with caution; mishandling MJD playing time combined with removal of true home games may cause fan morale to sink further.  He wants to likely see what he has in Jennings anyway. I would still take MJD in the bottom of the first and top of the second at the earliest because 1,600 yards rushing doesn't grow on trees.  The Jaguars will lean on the running game but this team has some talented wide receivers--not seen in Duval since the days of Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell.

Of course if Arian Foster, Ray Rice or LeSean McCoy drop to you in the mid 1st round because of premature and ill-advised quarterback runs, then by all means, scoop up and take to the bank.  But if not, and these three running backs are available they are all still worth being picked at four and later.  Overall I  would recommend McFadden, Johnson, then Jones-Drew in that order. In a standard twelve-teamer, if you pass over these guys to draft a Brady, Megatron or a Brees you may be looking at Matt Forte, Steven Jackson and/or taking an even bigger risk drafting Adrian Peterson at around picks 17-20 or so. Don’t take that risk and end up relying on mediocre RB talent during the fantasy stretch run.