Fantasy Football Week 8: Players to Avoid / Players to Adore

Can Manning (out)Shoot the Brees?

New Orleans at Denver

This game may see these two teams put up 1,000 yards before it’s all said and done.  Brees and Manning have a stable of useful fantasy players helping them. Jimmy Graham is a big question mark for this game.  If he can play he is a middling option until he can show signs of being healthy.  Even if Champ Bailey is still drawing breath, Marques Colston is a WR1 option for this game.  Lance Moore is also good play in this game; he had 11 targets in Week 7 and caught 6 for 120 with a score.  The rest of the Saints wideouts are collectively good for Brees but far too inconsistent for you the fantasy owners. I also wouldn’t go crazy and call Devery Henderson a WR 3, either. Darren Sproles won’t have a breakout game; although he has 32 receptions and 3 scores he’s only projected to rush for 300 yards total this season.  Denver’s defense will probably bottle up Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram.The Broncos surely watched the Saints defensive tape and are likely salivating.  The Saints defense gives up nearly 500 yards a game.  They won’t have an answer for Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Willis McGahee.  They are all must-starts and Eric Decker makes an excellent WR2…the trickle down effect of the Saints woeful defense makes Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme startable although low-end options.

Adore: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Demaryius Thomas, Marques Colston, Willis McGahee, Lance Moore

Meh: Eric Decker, Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham

Avoid: Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Brandon Stokely, Jacob Tamme

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Reid's Eagles Have Never Lost After a Bye (13-0) ..A TD Fest Awaits

The presumptive game of the week (at least in the NFC) features high flying birds that need to pray (excuse me, birds of prey).  The two teams feature juggernaut passing attacks and hit-or-miss defenses.   The Falcons present a real test for the Eagles cornerbacks.  Interestingly, the duo of Julio Jones and Roddy White have each alternated touchdowns, with White only scoring his four touchdowns at home and Jones scoring his four touchdowns in three road games.  This is a road game for the Falcons  and they need to get Julio Jones going –he’s only had  370 yards through 6 games. It will be tough with Julio probably drawing All-Pro corner Nnamdi Asomugha most of the game.  Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will be better fantasy plays.  Matt Ryan will need to grease the elbow up good before kickoff—this will be a shootout.  Consider Roddy White a must-start and Jones more of a WR2 in this game.  Michael Turner may be getting long in the tooth overnight.  He’s barely an RB2 in this matchup.  Jacquizz Rodgers has underwhelmed as usual, rushing for 2.5 yards per carry.

The Eagles conversely, need to get LeSean McCoy going after his 22 yard performance against the Lions.  The Falcons have allowed 100-yard rushing games by every opponent so far in 2012.  He should have a great game.  Atlanta’s run defense is not going to help them win that elusive playoff game at this rate (143.8 ypg allowed—28^th in the NFL).  They are second worst in terms of yards per carry as well (5.2).  McCoy is a must-start RB1. The Eagles also have a quarterback that runs well in Michael Vick and really quick wideouts that can get open deep when Vick buys time.  His offensive line hasn’t held up their end of the bargain and Vick has turned the ball over plenty.  He remains a risky fantasy start but will still accumulate passing yards enough to make a healthy Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson good WR2s for Week 8.  Brent Celek  has continued to disappear in the Eagles offense.

Adore: LeSean McCoy, Roddy White, Jeremy Maclin,  Matt Ryan

Meh:Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Falcons D

Avoid: Eagles D, Brent Celek, Michael Turner

Indianapolis at Tennessee

Jared Cook, TE1..Remember This Titan

This game’s shootout potential stems from another pair of generous defenses and better than average offenses.  The Titans are slowly making a climb back to respectability in the AFC South.  The weapons (Britt, Washington, Wright and Cook) are underrated for Tennessee, especially when Chris Johnson can get the running game going. One of these guys is going to have a big game and the tight end Cook is the best bet.  Indianapolis is set up to throw the ball with Andrew Luck though his 53.6% completion percentage has taken some luster off of the delusions of-immediate-fantasy-QB1-grandeur.  The word on the street is that the Titans struggle defending two tight end sets and the Colts have two good, albeit young ones in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.  Neither has proved to be to fantasy relevant.  I would start Reggie Wayne as a WR1 and utilize Vick Ballard as a flex; he’s the backup to Donald Brown and ran for 84 yards last week against the Browns.  He may be a little better than a flex play.  For Brown or Ballard owners, pay attention to this game.  If Ballard is able to run against the Titans he may be a sneaky play going forward. If Brown plays this backfield may slide into a timeshare. Neither look to hit paydirt; if the Colts put up points it'll be Luck to Wayne, primarily.

Matt Hasselbeck is a decent bye-week replacement and Chris Johnson is a RB1 in this matchup; he won’t go for 195 but should chip in double digit points.  Even though the Colts have given up the least point to tight ends this season, the best TE they've faced is the ghost of Jermichael Finley. Ben Watson, a Dustin Keller-less Jets team, the Packers, Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Rudolph (who scored) and Kellen Davis. Trust me, Jared Cook will perform as a TE1 in this matchup; he had 9 catches for 103 yards in the last game these two teams played.  The 6'5" 247-pound Cook may be the second speediest tight end in the game behind Vernon Davis but lacks physicality in run blocking.  They'll use him more as a receiver but if he could ever improve his blocking he would likely see more targets.

Adore: Chris Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Jared Cook

Meh: Andrew Luck, Nate Washington, Matt Hasselbeck, Donald Brown, Vick Ballard

Avoid: Kenny Britt, Donnie Avery, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener

Fantasy Football Recap: The All-Value Team Through Week 6

The All-Value Team represents fantasy football players we sure wish we knew were going to ball outta control during draft time in August.  Right now, the following players have outshined their draft position so tremendously, that if you look up at your league standings you'll likely see a lot these players mixed in with consistent fantasy stalwarts. There's a lot of football left, but it seems now that many of these guys are on pace to be MVP's for your league and in contention for Pro Bowls in the real NFL.  Either way, they represent the value that wins leagues and puts racks on racks on racks in your hand.

Quarterback

Real Leadership in D.C

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: RGIII, or Sir Robert III of Paydirt (that's mine by the way) would probably be drafted ahead of where Cam Newton was back before the season began, and its quite possible that he will greatly outperform Cam's magical 2011 season.  Asking him, he would probably focus on doing better than 6-10 (2011 Panthers record) because he is as team-oriented as advertised coming out of Baylor.  What we didn't expect from RGIII is his ability to produce Pro Bowl-caliber passing and rushing statistics and oh yeah, did we mention he's completing 70% of his passes? That's simply unheard of; coming in and completing 60% in your first year is typically considered great.   Robert Griffin III is the second quarterback since 1970  (besides Michael Vick) to rush for a buck thirty and score two touchdowns in a game.  Sir Robert has already had two 300-yard passing games this year, which in context, Vick hadn't thrown for 300 yards twice until his 52nd game.  RGIII is on pace to rush for 1,011 yards and 16 TDs as well.  I wouldn't expect the 16 TDs as teams continue to get more tape on him (See Cam 2012) but 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing with the potential for 30 combined touchdowns is attainable.  All this from a guy typically picked in the seventh or eight rounds at the earliest is the definition of value.

Honorable Mentions: Matt Ryan, Falcons;  Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Running Back 

Ridley: Believe It or Not

Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots:  A precarious position many fantasy owners were in, when by the fifth or sixth rounds of this year's fantasy drafts, if they hadn't at least drafted two running backs by that point.  If like many, you opted for guys like Peyton Hillis, James Starks, Beanie Wells and Toby Gerhart or heck, even Donald Brown because you were wary of the New England backfield situation.  Those players you picked probably have "bust" screaming at you when you look at your roster today.  But if you somehow lucked out and scooped up Stevan Ridley, you probably are entertaining trade offers for guys that would have been unthinkable in August.  Mr. Ridley's believe-it-or-not campaign has weathered Belichick's machinations on running back carries, a 100-yard outburst from off-the-radar Brandon Bolden, and New England's general apathy toward running the ball anyway.  Ridley has been a running threat not seen in Foxboro since Corey Dillon, to the tune of 524 yards rushing (5th in the NFL) along with 4 TDs in six games.  Ridley has pounded opponents into submission his first year as a starter and is projected for 315 carries, which delights his fantasy owners.  The last Patriots back to get 300 carries was Dillon with 345 in 2004.  If Ridley, who is probably less talented than Dillon was, can earn goalline carries away from competitors, he may become even more valuable.

Honorable Mentions: Alfred Morris, Redskins; C.J Spiller, Bills

Wide Receiver 

Reggie Wayne? Has Luck On His Side

Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts:  Reggie Wayne was supposed to be a solid WR2, probably a WR if Andrew Luck progressed according to schedule; he was routinely thought of as a 6th round fantasy pick at best, with smarty pant owners (like myself) typically valuing guys like Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon (ironic) , Darius Heyward-Bey, and hell, even Titus Young over the former U standout who is pretty near HOF consideration.  What folly. Turns out 2011 Reggie Wayne had some really mediocre quarterbacks throwing him the ball.  All Wayne has done is lead the entire league in targets (70), with 41 catches (4th) and 593 yards (3rd).   It has definitely been a rebirth and he is part of an offense who may be just scratching the surface of their potential, as Andrew Luck, has shown the same trademark accuracy and decision-making he did while at Stanford.  Wayne will continue to get plenty of looks his way as defenses still have to account for some speedy guys (Donnie Avery, T.Y Hilton) on the other side.

Honorable Mention: James Jones, Packers

Tight End

Tony, Tony, Tony: Still "Feels Good" at 36

Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons: Tony G. is typically an undervalued commodity at the position anyway, but let this be a lesson to all of us tight end lovers in August.  In one of my standard leagues there is a Top 50 ranking of all fantasy position players and not a single tight end is on the list.  You have to go all the way to #59, to find the first TE and its not Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham (guys drafted as early as the second round) it's Tony Gonzalez the 86-year old wunderkind from the Falcons.  So far, defenses have attention focused on Threat #1 and Threat #2 (Jones and White) that Gonzalez has found room and is on pace for well over 100 catches.  He still knows how to get open and I distinctly remembering looking at him in the eight in one draft and thinking, well Olsen, Gresham, and Cook will all be there later....right.