Halloween – Ghostly Tight Ends
Gates To... Hell (o) Bench |
Typically tight ends that can disappear from linebackers, corners and safeties are in high demand in football fantasy circles. However, fantasy tight ends that disappear on gameday from the stat sheet are a cause for much aggravation and concern. Maybe we all over-projected in search of the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski because--Jason Witten’s 18-catch day withstanding--the tight end resurgence that we all expected has not materialized. Gronkowski has played well and so has Jimmy Graham (when healthy) but not to last year’s pace. Mid-draft options have fallen well short of expectations. The main culprits here are Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley and because of injury, Aaron Hernandez and Fred Davis. But is the position declining in 2012 or was it just overdrafted in August? Consider the below table.
Overall, the picture is mixed and we omitted older tight ends (they didn't come with the hype) for purposes of this analysis but the decline in production from Finley and Gates is troublesome. Let this be a lesson not to overdraft the position for future seasons as only Gronkowski has justified his mid-2nd round status. We left out older tight ends that are enjoying career seasons because most of these guys were afterthoughts, but it does go to show that the older tight ends can still get the job done in fantasy. Owen Daniels, Tony Gonzalez and Heath Miller are top tight end options right now and they are all tied to (at-one-time-or-another) Pro Bowl quarterbacks. But so is Finley, Olsen and Gates. From this graph the tight end drafting strategy should be:
- There are two good tight ends worth drafting in the first three rounds
- If you miss out on them look for some veteran guys that play in offense with multiple weapons that will give them single coverage.
- If you miss out on them, then it’s really just a bunch of young guys, practically interchangeable, that haven’t become fantasy threats yet
Other News and Notes
- Daily Show Ready For Prime Time?
Jonathan Stewart carried 17 times for 42 yards against the stout run defense of the Bears and caught 4 passes for 38 yards. It has been an uphill battle for the Daily Show, but he is trending highly in trades and the speculation that DeAngelo Williams will be traded (Denver?) has only added fuel to the fire. The Panthers are believed to be going away from the zone-read into more of a power running game which could really do wonders for Stewart owners. The next three games are against the Redskins, Broncos and Buccaneers; two of those three teams are decent against the run. Perhaps the biggest asset is that Cam Newton and the Panthers are showing signs on offense and they are typically slow starters.
Speaking of trade rumors, if Steven Jackson gets traded (which isn’t looking too likely) then Daryl Richardson’s value could jump from a nice situational flex play to solid RB2, perhaps low-end RB1 territory. Isaiah Pead, drafted early by the Rams this year, would then be the change up back.
- Not The Only Jonathan in Town
Monitor the Jonathan Dwyer situation in Pittsburgh. If his injury is minor (he’s questionable right now) he is the #1 RB in Steel Country right now. He’s the first Steelers back since Willie Parker in 2008 to eclipse the century mark –Rashard Mendenhall has had that feat elude him in five years—just saying. The Steelers take on the Giants next.
The Bucs may trade LeGarrette Blount before the deadline Thursday but think about it; the only team where may truly be an upgrade in Green Bay, where the running back situation is less than ideal. The team is concerned with current starter Alex Green’s ability to follow the holes; this may present a window of opportunity for James Starks owners to grab carries, especially if no back is added via trade. Stay tuned. Speaking of the Bucs, they just had to place mammoth left guard Carl Nicks on the injured reserve. A blow to an offense that was really starting to gel and this negatively affects Doug Martin’s fantasy value.
- Giving Owners Fitz..
Larry Fitzgerald’s forgettable season continued against the 49ers (5 points) and the Cardinals QB situation is completely to blame. You may want to consider benching Fitzgerald for lesser options including guys like Mike Williams, Denarius Moore and James Jones. Arizona’s offense can’t run block (7 yards total as a team against San Francisco), pass protect.