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Wednesday, October 31, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 9 Halloween Special – Fantasy Tight Ends That Disappear!


Halloween – Ghostly Tight Ends
Gates To... Hell (o) Bench
Typically tight ends that can disappear from linebackers, corners and safeties are in high demand in football fantasy circles.  However, fantasy tight ends that disappear on gameday from the stat sheet are a cause for much aggravation and concern.  Maybe we all over-projected in search of the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski because--Jason Witten’s 18-catch day withstanding--the tight end resurgence that we all expected has not materialized.  Gronkowski has played well and so has Jimmy Graham (when healthy) but not to last year’s pace. Mid-draft options have fallen well short of expectations.  The main culprits here are Antonio Gates, Jermichael Finley and because of injury, Aaron Hernandez and Fred Davis.  But is the position declining in 2012 or was it just overdrafted in August? Consider the below table.
Overall, the picture is mixed and we omitted older tight ends (they didn't come with the hype) for purposes of this analysis but the decline in production from Finley and Gates is troublesome.  Let this be a lesson not to overdraft the position for future seasons as only Gronkowski has justified his mid-2nd round status.  We left out older tight ends that are enjoying career seasons because most of these guys were afterthoughts, but it does go to show that the older tight ends can still get the job done in fantasy.  Owen Daniels, Tony Gonzalez and Heath Miller are top tight end options right now and they are all tied to (at-one-time-or-another) Pro Bowl quarterbacks.  But so is Finley, Olsen and Gates.  From this graph the tight end drafting strategy should be:
  • There are two good tight ends worth drafting in the first three rounds
  • If you miss out on them look for some veteran guys that play in offense with multiple weapons that will give them single coverage.
  • If  you miss out on them, then it’s really just a bunch of young guys, practically interchangeable, that haven’t become fantasy threats yet
Other News and Notes
Daily Show Ready For Prime Time?
Jonathan Stewart carried 17 times for 42 yards against the stout run defense of the Bears and caught 4 passes for 38 yards.  It has been an uphill battle for the Daily Show, but he is trending highly in trades and the speculation that DeAngelo Williams will be traded (Denver?) has only added fuel to the fire.  The Panthers are believed to be going away from the zone-read into more of a power running game which could really do wonders for Stewart owners. The next three games are against the Redskins, Broncos and Buccaneers; two of those three teams are decent against the run.  Perhaps the biggest asset is that Cam Newton and the Panthers are showing signs on offense and they are typically slow starters.
Speaking of trade rumors, if Steven Jackson gets traded (which isn’t looking too likely) then Daryl Richardson’s value could jump from a nice situational flex play to solid RB2, perhaps low-end RB1 territory. Isaiah Pead, drafted early by the Rams this year, would then be the change up back.
Not The Only Jonathan in Town
Monitor the Jonathan Dwyer situation in Pittsburgh.  If his injury is minor (he’s questionable right now) he is the #1 RB in Steel Country right now.  He’s the first Steelers back since Willie Parker in 2008 to eclipse the century mark –Rashard Mendenhall has had that feat elude him in five years—just saying.  The Steelers take on the Giants next.
The Bucs may trade LeGarrette Blount before the deadline Thursday but think about it; the only team where may truly be an upgrade in Green Bay, where the running back situation is less than ideal.  The team is concerned with current starter Alex Green’s ability to follow the holes; this may present a window of opportunity for James Starks owners to grab carries, especially if no back is added via trade. Stay tuned. Speaking of the Bucs, they just had to place mammoth left guard Carl Nicks on the injured reserve.  A blow to an offense that was really starting to gel and this negatively affects Doug Martin’s fantasy value.
Giving Owners Fitz..
Larry Fitzgerald’s forgettable season continued against the 49ers (5 points) and the Cardinals QB situation is completely to blame. You may want to consider benching Fitzgerald for lesser options including guys like Mike Williams, Denarius Moore and James Jones.  Arizona’s offense can’t run block (7 yards total as a team against San Francisco), pass protect.

Saturday, October 27, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 8: Players to Avoid / Players to Adore


Can Manning (out)Shoot the Brees?

New Orleans at Denver
This game may see these two teams put up 1,000 yards before it’s all said and done.  Brees and Manning have a stable of useful fantasy players helping them. Jimmy Graham is a big question mark for this game.  If he can play he is a middling option until he can show signs of being healthy.  Even if Champ Bailey is still drawing breath, Marques Colston is a WR1 option for this game.  Lance Moore is also good play in this game; he had 11 targets in Week 7 and caught 6 for 120 with a score.  The rest of the Saints wideouts are collectively good for Brees but far too inconsistent for you the fantasy owners. I also wouldn’t go crazy and call Devery Henderson a WR 3, either. Darren Sproles won’t have a breakout game; although he has 32 receptions and 3 scores he’s only projected to rush for 300 yards total this season.  Denver’s defense will probably bottle up Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram.The Broncos surely watched the Saints defensive tape and are likely salivating.  The Saints defense gives up nearly 500 yards a game.  They won’t have an answer for Peyton Manning, Demaryius Thomas, and Willis McGahee.  They are all must-starts and Eric Decker makes an excellent WR2…the trickle down effect of the Saints woeful defense makes Brandon Stokley and Jacob Tamme startable although low-end options.

Adore: Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Demaryius Thomas, Marques Colston, Willis McGahee, Lance Moore
Meh: Eric Decker, Darren Sproles, Jimmy Graham
Avoid: Pierre Thomas, Mark Ingram, Brandon Stokely, Jacob Tamme


Atlanta at Philadelphia
Reid's Eagles Have Never Lost After a Bye (13-0) ..A TD Fest Awaits
The presumptive game of the week (at least in the NFC) features high flying birds that need to pray (excuse me, birds of prey).  The two teams feature juggernaut passing attacks and hit-or-miss defenses.   The Falcons present a real test for the Eagles cornerbacks.  Interestingly, the duo of Julio Jones and Roddy White have each alternated touchdowns, with White only scoring his four touchdowns at home and Jones scoring his four touchdowns in three road games.  This is a road game for the Falcons  and they need to get Julio Jones going –he’s only had  370 yards through 6 games. It will be tough with Julio probably drawing All-Pro corner Nnamdi Asomugha most of the game.  Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez will be better fantasy plays.  Matt Ryan will need to grease the elbow up good before kickoff—this will be a shootout.  Consider Roddy White a must-start and Jones more of a WR2 in this game.  Michael Turner may be getting long in the tooth overnight.  He’s barely an RB2 in this matchup.  Jacquizz Rodgers has underwhelmed as usual, rushing for 2.5 yards per carry.
The Eagles conversely, need to get LeSean McCoy going after his 22 yard performance against the Lions.  The Falcons have allowed 100-yard rushing games by every opponent so far in 2012.  He should have a great game.  Atlanta’s run defense is not going to help them win that elusive playoff game at this rate (143.8 ypg allowed—28th in the NFL).  They are second worst in terms of yards per carry as well (5.2).  McCoy is a must-start RB1. The Eagles also have a quarterback that runs well in Michael Vick and really quick wideouts that can get open deep when Vick buys time.  His offensive line hasn’t held up their end of the bargain and Vick has turned the ball over plenty.  He remains a risky fantasy start but will still accumulate passing yards enough to make a healthy Jeremy Maclin and DeSean Jackson good WR2s for Week 8.  Brent Celek  has continued to disappear in the Eagles offense.
Adore: LeSean McCoy, Roddy White, Jeremy Maclin,  Matt Ryan
Meh:Michael Vick, DeSean Jackson, Julio Jones, Tony Gonzalez, Falcons D
Avoid: Eagles D, Brent Celek, Michael Turner

Indianapolis at Tennessee
Jared Cook, TE1..Remember This Titan
This game’s shootout potential stems from another pair of generous defenses and better than average offenses.  The Titans are slowly making a climb back to respectability in the AFC South.  The weapons (Britt, Washington, Wright and Cook) are underrated for Tennessee, especially when Chris Johnson can get the running game going. One of these guys is going to have a big game and the tight end Cook is the best bet.  Indianapolis is set up to throw the ball with Andrew Luck though his 53.6% completion percentage has taken some luster off of the delusions of-immediate-fantasy-QB1-grandeur.  The word on the street is that the Titans struggle defending two tight end sets and the Colts have two good, albeit young ones in Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen.  Neither has proved to be to fantasy relevant.  I would start Reggie Wayne as a WR1 and utilize Vick Ballard as a flex; he’s the backup to Donald Brown and ran for 84 yards last week against the Browns.  He may be a little better than a flex play.  For Brown or Ballard owners, pay attention to this game.  If Ballard is able to run against the Titans he may be a sneaky play going forward. If Brown plays this backfield may slide into a timeshare. Neither look to hit paydirt; if the Colts put up points it'll be Luck to Wayne, primarily.
Matt Hasselbeck is a decent bye-week replacement and Chris Johnson is a RB1 in this matchup; he won’t go for 195 but should chip in double digit points.  Even though the Colts have given up the least point to tight ends this season, the best TE they've faced is the ghost of Jermichael Finley. Ben Watson, a Dustin Keller-less Jets team, the Packers, Marcedes Lewis, Kyle Rudolph (who scored) and Kellen Davis. Trust me, Jared Cook will perform as a TE1 in this matchup; he had 9 catches for 103 yards in the last game these two teams played.  The 6'5" 247-pound Cook may be the second speediest tight end in the game behind Vernon Davis but lacks physicality in run blocking.  They'll use him more as a receiver but if he could ever improve his blocking he would likely see more targets.
Adore: Chris Johnson, Reggie Wayne, Jared Cook
Meh: Andrew Luck, Nate Washington, Matt Hasselbeck, Donald Brown, Vick Ballard
Avoid: Kenny Britt, Donnie Avery, Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener

Tuesday, October 23, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 7 Tuesday Recap: Hittin’ the Wire (Jennings, LaRod, Josh Freeman)


Fantasy Football Recap Week 7

Week 7 was another exciting for fantasy owners as we head into Week 8 in the NFL with several shootouts and big games that led to points galore.  This fantasy football game we play is about as nerve racking and unpredictable as ever, and as fantasy owners here are some overall league trends you can appreciate or not.  Offense, offense, offense.   There are 31 teams in the NFL that currently average 293 yards a game or more with the lone exception, the Jacksonville Jaguars averaging a mind-boggling 235. 8 yards per game which is nearly sixty yards less than the 31st ranked team on offense, the Arizona Cardinals.  Five teams currently average over 400 yards a game, with four of them being in the NFC (New England being the exception).   The 24th ranked team in yards per game, the Carolina Panthers average 335.5 yards a game which would have been considered slightly above average a handful of years ago.  The point is that fantasy contributions can come from anywhere—whereas before there were teams that simply didn’t hold any fantasy value on the roster. So, do your homework.  Here’s some cliff notes for Week 8.
Get Rashad On Your Squad
The offensively-challenged Jacksonville Jaguars star running back Maurice Jones-Drew will be out against Green Bay in Week 8.  Rashad Jennings is now ready to be freed from waiver prison.  Can’t say he will run rampant over the Packers but is a for-sure good flex play.  Jennings has a track record of filling in nicely for MJD, he’s a big bruising type back that is developing in the passing game.  Jones-Drew may be out for awhile, so fantasy manage accordingly.

A Howling in October?
I mean is there a more tortured fantasy backfield than the Arizona Cardinals? Still, take note of LaRod Stephens-Howling’s 104- yard effort against the stingy Minnesota Vikings defense.  William Powell was thought to be the more likely usurper of the former Beanie Wells-Ryan Williams job but coach Ken Whisenhunt has always shown that he likes what LSH brings to the offense.  He is definitely worth a waiver add for Week 8 but temper expectations because the San Francisco 49ers visit Arizona.  If he can rush for 50-60 yards in this contest, ladies and gentlemen you may have found something for the remainder of the season.
Pondering Your Future?
There was a Darius Heyward-Bey sighting in Week 7 against the Jacksonville Jaguars (4 catches, 85 yards).  The fact that DHB is playing weeks after being carried off on a stretcher is just short of miraculous.  Not ready to say he is going to return to WR2 status, but definitely someone to re-monitor if left out on the wire.I didn’t think Christian Ponder would pass for 50-odd yards, 2 picks and still win, but that’s exactly what happened in a 21-14 win over the Cardinals.  I have a rule whenever marginal fantasy quarterbacks go under 100 yards, that’s its time to add to the wire, not mine it.
Freeman: 12th in QB Fantasy Points in Standard Leagues
In his place, I can definitely recommend Josh Freeman, who is playing out of his mind right now (66 points in ESPN standard leagues the last two week).  Four quarterbacks in fantasy have put together back-to-back 30 point performances in ESPN standard leagues; Rodgers, Brees, Manning and Freeman.  748 yards and 6 touchdowns in two games will do that for you; after Minnesota's average pass defense he's got Oakland, (22nd) San Diego, (25th) and Carolina (19th) as his next three secondaries to torch.  Offensive coordinator Mike Sullivan has decided to throw the ball the big guy, Vincent Jackson, and these two will probably be a Top 10 tandem by the years end.  If Freeman can go for 250 and 2 touchdowns on the national stage Thursday night in Minnesota, then a lot more fantasy attention will come his way.
Another guy from that draft in 2009, Mark Sanchez will be a decent bye-week option.  Matt Hasselbeck is another veteran that I could see filling in on your team at quarterback; his receiving options are underrated. These guys won't be on the wire for long, so happy hitting!

Friday, October 19, 2012

Fantasy Football NFL Week 7: Players to Adore/Players to Avoid in This Week’s Games


Bad defenses equal lots of fantasy points for teams this Week 7.  If you’re like me and have a  couple struggling, middling squads in your fantasy stable that can’t break 100 points to save their lives, pay attention..
Tennessee at Buffalo
CJ2K Avoids Bills This Sunday: Bank on It
There figures to be plenty of points scored in this one as these teams share an interesting history in matchups dating back to the infamous Frank Reich comeback in the early 1990’s and the Music City Miracle of 2000. Today’s versions of these the Bills, Titans, hell even Oilers, are a shell of any of those previous teams in terms of defense, however. This spells good news for fantasy owners, however.  Despite the addition of free agent Mario Williams, the Bills have been very poor against the run, surrendering nearly 174 yards a game and allowing a miserable 5.8 yards a clip both good for last in the NFL so far.  Tennessee allows a putrid 422 yards a game, with a very gracious secondary that gives up nearly 300 yards a game through the air.  That being said Chris Johnson owners should come out of the woodwork and start CJ2K with no fear in this matchup.  The Titans will rely on Chris Johnson, and utilize playaction with Hasselbeck finding open and underrated weapons: a 60% Kenny Britt, an emerging Kendall Wright and speedy Jared Cook, to a lesser extent.  The Bills are pretty bad in the secondary as well…I really like Kendall Wright to break open a big play or two. When the Bills have the ball on offense, look for C.J Spiller to better take advantage of the Titans defense than backfield mate Fred Jackson.  Ryan Fitzpatrick is a middling option at QB1 as his typical despite the Titans allowing an opposing QB rating of 107. 9—dead last in the NFL.  Fitzy has only thrown for 279 yards combined in the last two games.  Stevie Johnson will likely draw Jason McCourty which will neutralize him to some extent; Scott Chandler gets a fantasy nod because the Titans allow plenty of big plays and fantasy points to tight ends.  Interesting fact: Tennessee has never lost to the Buffalo Bills, going 4-0 against them since moving to the Volunteer State.
Adore: Chris Johnson, Kendall Wright, C.J. Spiller, Scott Chandler
Meh: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stevie Johnson, Jared Cook, Matt Hasselbeck
Avoid: Both Defenses, Fred Jackson, Kenny Britt

Baltimore at Houston
The Vinny Years: Last Time Ravens Defense Was This Bad
With the loss of Ray Lewis and perhaps more importantly Ladarius Webb, the Texans and Ravens features teams that are seemingly flip-flopping roles in 2012.  The Texans are the higher ranked defense using ball-control runs, with Arian Foster to wins games this year, not the Ravens.  Baltimore is averaging 385 yards a contest, allowing Joe Flacco to run a modified no-huddle in attempt to confuse defenses.  This game will be a slugfest; the Ravens allow an inconceivable 137 yards on the ground (giving up a franchise record 227 to Dallas last week) and the Texans should be able to run and throw with success considering the Ravens allow another 260 on average through the air.  Despite the return of Terrell Suggs and even though Houston has struggled running the ball lately, Arian Foster is a great play this week.  The Andre Johnson decline has fantasy owners worried and presumably Jimmy Smith and Johnson will be matched up for a lot of the game.  The Texans need to run to set up playaction for Johnson and I just don’t see him getting big numbers with Ed Reed still back there.  Owen Daniels is a good play at TE and that’s it; the rest of the wide receiving core will struggle to get targets, i.e. Kevin Walter.
A Shoo-In for 20 Fantasy Points: Arigato, Ray Ray!
On the Baltimore side, the Texans secondary got exposed last week by Green Bay to the tune of 6 aerial paydirt entrances.  They will have more luck getting the passing game going and then passing to set up the run.  Ray Rice is only projected to carry the ball 259 times this year because the Ravens passing attack has been successful.  Anquan Boldin is the number one option when Flacco looks to throw but will draw Kareem Jackson; Torrey Smith is a better play.  TE Dennis Pitta will look to get on track against a Texans defense that allowed a touchdown to a tight end in each of the past four weeks. Interesting fact #2: the Texans have never beaten the Ravens (0-6).
Adore: Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith, Owen Daniels
Meh: Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Dennis Pitta
Avoid: Both Defenses, Kevin Walter, Anquan Boldin, Ben Tate

New Orleans at Tampa Bay
Vilma Watches Film and Concludes: Saints Steady Getting Marched On
I would be remiss if I didn’t include the Bucs and Saints game in a article concerning possible shootouts in Week 7.  New Orleans allows an ACC-record 456 yards a game and the Bucs are 25th in defense allowing 387.2 yards per contest, although their run defense is stout.  Regardless if Jonathan Vilma comes back from suspension or not, the Saints are turrible on defense right now and Tampa Bay's improving offense is licking its chops.  To keep up I suspect, New Orleans will throw, throw, and throw in this game and the Bucs have enough weapons to match in a big scoring affair.  Brees and Co. just aren't the same without Sean Payton and on the road to boot?
It’s a division game so I suspect the running games will meet slightly more resistance, especially for the Bucs. They’ll have to keep finding Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams deep, which makes them both good/great plays in this contest.  The Saints will find that safety Mark Barron was drafted specifically to stop Jimmy Graham, and he’ll have his hands full with the athletic tight end; Graham has owned the Bucs the last two games. As of Friday, Graham was questionable to play in this game (ankle) and therefore is a mediocre start in this one. Marques Colston is a must-start in this game. Colston has 31 targets and 4 touchdowns in the last two games, and the Buccaneer secondary awaits-- sans Aqib Talib.  What the Saints won’t find is running room for their traditional style running backs, but will likely get Sproles going enough to be a good start.  Josh Freeman has never thrown an interception against the Saints and won’t in this one--making him a sneaky QB play.  The Saints have three picks all year and none of their corners are a good matchup for the towering Jackson, who has scored in back to back games for the first time since 2009.

Adore: Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Josh Freeman
Meh: Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Mike Williams, Jimmy Graham, Devery Henderson
Avoid: Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, LeGarrette Blount

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Fantasy Football Recap: The All-Value Team Through Week 6


The All-Value Team represents fantasy football players we sure wish we knew were going to ball outta control during draft time in August.  Right now, the following players have outshined their draft position so tremendously, that if you look up at your league standings you'll likely see a lot these players mixed in with consistent fantasy stalwarts. There's a lot of football left, but it seems now that many of these guys are on pace to be MVP's for your league and in contention for Pro Bowls in the real NFL.  Either way, they represent the value that wins leagues and puts racks on racks on racks in your hand.
Quarterback
Real Leadership in D.C
Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins: RGIII, or Sir Robert III of Paydirt (that's mine by the way) would probably be drafted ahead of where Cam Newton was back before the season began, and its quite possible that he will greatly outperform Cam's magical 2011 season.  Asking him, he would probably focus on doing better than 6-10 (2011 Panthers record) because he is as team-oriented as advertised coming out of Baylor.  What we didn't expect from RGIII is his ability to produce Pro Bowl-caliber passing and rushing statistics and oh yeah, did we mention he's completing 70% of his passes? That's simply unheard of; coming in and completing 60% in your first year is typically considered great.   Robert Griffin III is the second quarterback since 1970  (besides Michael Vick) to rush for a buck thirty and score two touchdowns in a game.  Sir Robert has already had two 300-yard passing games this year, which in context, Vick hadn't thrown for 300 yards twice until his 52nd game.  RGIII is on pace to rush for 1,011 yards and 16 TDs as well.  I wouldn't expect the 16 TDs as teams continue to get more tape on him (See Cam 2012) but 3,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing with the potential for 30 combined touchdowns is attainable.  All this from a guy typically picked in the seventh or eight rounds at the earliest is the definition of value.
Honorable Mentions: Matt Ryan, Falcons;  Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Running Back 
Ridley: Believe It or Not
Stevan Ridley, New England Patriots:  A precarious position many fantasy owners were in, when by the fifth or sixth rounds of this year's fantasy drafts, if they hadn't at least drafted two running backs by that point.  If like many, you opted for guys like Peyton Hillis, James Starks, Beanie Wells and Toby Gerhart or heck, even Donald Brown because you were wary of the New England backfield situation.  Those players you picked probably have "bust" screaming at you when you look at your roster today.  But if you somehow lucked out and scooped up Stevan Ridley, you probably are entertaining trade offers for guys that would have been unthinkable in August.  Mr. Ridley's believe-it-or-not campaign has weathered Belichick's machinations on running back carries, a 100-yard outburst from off-the-radar Brandon Bolden, and New England's general apathy toward running the ball anyway.  Ridley has been a running threat not seen in Foxboro since Corey Dillon, to the tune of 524 yards rushing (5th in the NFL) along with 4 TDs in six games.  Ridley has pounded opponents into submission his first year as a starter and is projected for 315 carries, which delights his fantasy owners.  The last Patriots back to get 300 carries was Dillon with 345 in 2004.  If Ridley, who is probably less talented than Dillon was, can earn goalline carries away from competitors, he may become even more valuable.
Honorable Mentions: Alfred Morris, Redskins; C.J Spiller, Bills

Wide Receiver 
Reggie Wayne? Has Luck On His Side
Reggie Wayne, Indianapolis Colts:  Reggie Wayne was supposed to be a solid WR2, probably a WR if Andrew Luck progressed according to schedule; he was routinely thought of as a 6th round fantasy pick at best, with smarty pant owners (like myself) typically valuing guys like Torrey Smith, Pierre Garcon (ironic) , Darius Heyward-Bey, and hell, even Titus Young over the former U standout who is pretty near HOF consideration.  What folly. Turns out 2011 Reggie Wayne had some really mediocre quarterbacks throwing him the ball.  All Wayne has done is lead the entire league in targets (70), with 41 catches (4th) and 593 yards (3rd).   It has definitely been a rebirth and he is part of an offense who may be just scratching the surface of their potential, as Andrew Luck, has shown the same trademark accuracy and decision-making he did while at Stanford.  Wayne will continue to get plenty of looks his way as defenses still have to account for some speedy guys (Donnie Avery, T.Y Hilton) on the other side.
Honorable Mention: James Jones, Packers

Tight End
Tony, Tony, Tony: Still "Feels Good" at 36
Tony Gonzalez, Atlanta Falcons: Tony G. is typically an undervalued commodity at the position anyway, but let this be a lesson to all of us tight end lovers in August.  In one of my standard leagues there is a Top 50 ranking of all fantasy position players and not a single tight end is on the list.  You have to go all the way to #59, to find the first TE and its not Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham (guys drafted as early as the second round) it's Tony Gonzalez the 86-year old wunderkind from the Falcons.  So far, defenses have attention focused on Threat #1 and Threat #2 (Jones and White) that Gonzalez has found room and is on pace for well over 100 catches.  He still knows how to get open and I distinctly remembering looking at him in the eight in one draft and thinking, well Olsen, Gresham, and Cook will all be there later....right.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Fantasy Football Week 5 : A Battle for Carries and Other Analysis (Ryan Matthews Owners Freak Out)


A Battle For Carries in San Diego
What to make of Ryan Matthews and Jackie Battle? Matthews didn’t start against the Chiefs and the Chargers rolled out to a big lead, making fantasy use of former chief Jackie Battle.  Matthews got some grind in the fourth quarter without fumbling but this is troubling.  Now the Chargers have Jackie Battle atop the depth chart.  This is a nightmare for Ryan Matthews owners.  He is going to have to work hard to turn this committee back into a dictatorship.  I like Battle, but this seems a little punitive especially for Norv Turner, considered generally a player's coach.  The Chargers don’t seem to be letting any one player gobble up air targets either with seven players catching a pass against the Chiefs.  Eddie Royal led them with five as Philip Rivers went 18 for 23. TE Antonio Gates, off to a slow start went 3 for 59. Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe continue to be first rate RB and WR options in Kansas City.


Adds of the Week
Hartline Leads the NFL in Receiving Yardage
Brian Hartline, WR, Miami Dolphins - For years this guy has underwhelmed, and then WHAM! 253 yards on 12 catches against mainly William Gay and the Cardinals secondary.  He's available in shallow league and is a WR2 mainly because the Dolphins will trail a lot this season; and he's already forged chemistry with rookie Ryan Tannehill, who looks to be maturing in the offense overnight.  Of all players who have gained 250 yards receiving in a game, all of them has significant careers with the exception of Anthony Allen for the 1987 Redskins.  The last player to break out from obscurity with a 250-yard performance? Miles Austin in 2009 against the Chiefs. Next up for Hartline, the Cincinnati Bengals secondary--start him as a WR2.  The Dolphins recently signed Jabar Gaffney to presumably..uh, I'm not sure.

Feeling Emboldened?
Brandon Bolden, RB, New England Patriots - A little less enthused on this pickup but could still figure prominently in a Patriots crowded backfield because with Bill Belichick one can never tell.  The last Ole Miss running back Belichick employed significantly: BenJarvus Green-Ellis.  They have a similar style, he's a grinder and may fill the void as a goalline back.  But he's clearly a backup to Stevan Ridley- but things can change.  I wouldn't use him as any more than a flex in the deepest of leagues.  He may have upside as the Patriots haven't settled on anyone yet for defined backfield roles; or he could also be the by-product of a blowout and really awful Bills defense.

Other Gripes
What is ze blue hell is wrong with Matthew Stafford? The oh-so surprising 1-3 Detroit Lions have scored 54 points the last two week and Stafford is accountable for two of them (one rushing)?  That’s not good.  Last year, everything that hit paydirt for the Motor City seemingly went through Stafford.  AP went for 100+ and Mikel LeShoure, after all the hype I manifested for “Grown Simba” definitely played liked “Young Simba” against the hyenas of the Minnesota Vikings run defense.  26 yards for 13 carries won’t let fantasy owners start you unequivocally.  He may be a great buy-low candidate at this point.

Marshawn Lynch kept rolling through the Gateway City, going for 118 on 20 and his backup, Robert Turbin was also sighted (6 for 45).  Unfortunately for the Seahawks and Sidney Rice owners, Russell Wilson is going to have some growing pains rendering Seattle wideouts mostly unusable.  St. Louis found a way to win, but Steven Jackson hasn’t got going yet.   Most employable Ram is still Danny Amendola, who is on pace to catch 124-1404 and 8 scores—buyer beware, he’s a WR2 right now especially when the Rams play at home.  His quicks and that turf are simpatico.

All that Bilal Powell talk that I succumbed to, as well, may be way,way, too premature.  Some owners were looking for more carries for the former Louisville Cardinal and he flopped—4 carries for a paltry 11 yards.  The Jets look destitute right now on offense, but the 49ers are a great team committed to running the ball and stopping you from doing the same.  Speaking of the running the ball, the 49ers had nine players record a carry in the 34-0 pasting.  If I’m a Frank Gore owner, I’m a little wary of Kendall Hunter’s 8 for 56.  Could spell trouble, or it could be Bilal Powell II.  The skinny: Not a chance, Powell has a fraction of Hunter’s offensive line and track record. Gore is another sell-high candidate.

Chris Johnson finally gets off the schnide running for more yards against Houston then he had in the last 34 games total.  Not really, but 25 attempt for 141 yards is really what faithful fantasy owners had in mind back in late August.  Coming off a game where the offensive line played well, but the Titans still get blown out, CJ2K made sure you and I know that he is only as good as his offensive line.  He didn't quite throw them under the bus, but handed out discount passes for them to check under them.  All said CJ2K is another great sell-high candidate and at the same time he is a great guy to trade for.  Bottom line, I have no clue what CJ2K is going to do.  Does anyone? I'd love to hear it.