Bad defenses equal lots of fantasy points for teams this Week 7. If you’re like me and have a couple struggling, middling squads in your fantasy stable that can’t break 100 points to save their lives, pay attention..
Tennessee at Buffalo
- CJ2K Avoids Bills This Sunday: Bank on It
There figures to be plenty of points scored in this one as these teams share an interesting history in matchups dating back to the infamous Frank Reich comeback in the early 1990’s and the Music City Miracle of 2000. Today’s versions of these the Bills, Titans, hell even Oilers, are a shell of any of those previous teams in terms of defense, however. This spells good news for fantasy owners, however. Despite the addition of free agent Mario Williams, the Bills have been very poor against the run, surrendering nearly 174 yards a game and allowing a miserable 5.8 yards a clip both good for last in the NFL so far. Tennessee allows a putrid 422 yards a game, with a very gracious secondary that gives up nearly 300 yards a game through the air. That being said Chris Johnson owners should come out of the woodwork and start CJ2K with no fear in this matchup. The Titans will rely on Chris Johnson, and utilize playaction with Hasselbeck finding open and underrated weapons: a 60% Kenny Britt, an emerging Kendall Wright and speedy Jared Cook, to a lesser extent. The Bills are pretty bad in the secondary as well…I really like Kendall Wright to break open a big play or two. When the Bills have the ball on offense, look for C.J Spiller to better take advantage of the Titans defense than backfield mate Fred Jackson. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a middling option at QB1 as his typical despite the Titans allowing an opposing QB rating of 107. 9—dead last in the NFL. Fitzy has only thrown for 279 yards combined in the last two games. Stevie Johnson will likely draw Jason McCourty which will neutralize him to some extent; Scott Chandler gets a fantasy nod because the Titans allow plenty of big plays and fantasy points to tight ends. Interesting fact: Tennessee has never lost to the Buffalo Bills, going 4-0 against them since moving to the Volunteer State.
Adore: Chris Johnson, Kendall Wright, C.J. Spiller, Scott Chandler
Meh: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Stevie Johnson, Jared Cook, Matt Hasselbeck
Avoid: Both Defenses, Fred Jackson, Kenny Britt
Baltimore at Houston
- The Vinny Years: Last Time Ravens Defense Was This Bad
With the loss of Ray Lewis and perhaps more importantly Ladarius Webb, the Texans and Ravens features teams that are seemingly flip-flopping roles in 2012. The Texans are the higher ranked defense using ball-control runs, with Arian Foster to wins games this year, not the Ravens. Baltimore is averaging 385 yards a contest, allowing Joe Flacco to run a modified no-huddle in attempt to confuse defenses. This game will be a slugfest; the Ravens allow an inconceivable 137 yards on the ground (giving up a franchise record 227 to Dallas last week) and the Texans should be able to run and throw with success considering the Ravens allow another 260 on average through the air. Despite the return of Terrell Suggs and even though Houston has struggled running the ball lately, Arian Foster is a great play this week. The Andre Johnson decline has fantasy owners worried and presumably Jimmy Smith and Johnson will be matched up for a lot of the game. The Texans need to run to set up playaction for Johnson and I just don’t see him getting big numbers with Ed Reed still back there. Owen Daniels is a good play at TE and that’s it; the rest of the wide receiving core will struggle to get targets, i.e. Kevin Walter.
- A Shoo-In for 20 Fantasy Points: Arigato, Ray Ray!
On the Baltimore side, the Texans secondary got exposed last week by Green Bay to the tune of 6 aerial paydirt entrances. They will have more luck getting the passing game going and then passing to set up the run. Ray Rice is only projected to carry the ball 259 times this year because the Ravens passing attack has been successful. Anquan Boldin is the number one option when Flacco looks to throw but will draw Kareem Jackson; Torrey Smith is a better play. TE Dennis Pitta will look to get on track against a Texans defense that allowed a touchdown to a tight end in each of the past four weeks. Interesting fact #2: the Texans have never beaten the Ravens (0-6).
Adore: Arian Foster, Ray Rice, Joe Flacco, Torrey Smith, Owen Daniels
Meh: Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Dennis Pitta
Avoid: Both Defenses, Kevin Walter, Anquan Boldin, Ben Tate
New Orleans at Tampa Bay
- Vilma Watches Film and Concludes: Saints Steady Getting Marched On
I would be remiss if I didn’t include the Bucs and Saints game in a article concerning possible shootouts in Week 7. New Orleans allows an ACC-record 456 yards a game and the Bucs are 25th in defense allowing 387.2 yards per contest, although their run defense is stout. Regardless if Jonathan Vilma comes back from suspension or not, the Saints are turrible on defense right now and Tampa Bay's improving offense is licking its chops. To keep up I suspect, New Orleans will throw, throw, and throw in this game and the Bucs have enough weapons to match in a big scoring affair. Brees and Co. just aren't the same without Sean Payton and on the road to boot?
It’s a division game so I suspect the running games will meet slightly more resistance, especially for the Bucs. They’ll have to keep finding Vincent Jackson and Mike Williams deep, which makes them both good/great plays in this contest. The Saints will find that safety Mark Barron was drafted specifically to stop Jimmy Graham, and he’ll have his hands full with the athletic tight end; Graham has owned the Bucs the last two games. As of Friday, Graham was questionable to play in this game (ankle) and therefore is a mediocre start in this one. Marques Colston is a must-start in this game. Colston has 31 targets and 4 touchdowns in the last two games, and the Buccaneer secondary awaits-- sans Aqib Talib. What the Saints won’t find is running room for their traditional style running backs, but will likely get Sproles going enough to be a good start. Josh Freeman has never thrown an interception against the Saints and won’t in this one--making him a sneaky QB play. The Saints have three picks all year and none of their corners are a good matchup for the towering Jackson, who has scored in back to back games for the first time since 2009.
Adore: Drew Brees, Marques Colston, Vincent Jackson, Josh Freeman
Meh: Darren Sproles, Doug Martin, Mike Williams, Jimmy Graham, Devery Henderson
Avoid: Pierre Thomas, Lance Moore, LeGarrette Blount
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