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Raising the Standard of Fantasy Sports Analysis, and other Tomfoolery.

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Friday, January 25, 2013

Fantasy NBA Basketball Advice Week 14: Alan Anderson, Earl Clark and Shannon Brown


As we reported a few months ago, Hornets are officially going the way of the dodo bird, or pelican as the New Orleans franchise will be known as from this point on.  The logo is an angry bird; but personally, I think they could’ve done much worse--at least the pelican is interwoven in the history of the region and is a resilient bird.
Alan Anderson: The Allen Iverson School of Point Accumulation in a 6"6' Package
Our recommendation for the fantasy basketball owners looking for small forwards is to peruse the recent offerings by Raptors swingman Alan Anderson (SF, Raptors).  Who would’ve thought that so many recent fantasy waiver wire additions (Ed Davis, Terence Ross, Amir Johnson) would come from this 16-27, albeit improving, squad? Anderson’s main value is scoring and threes, his excellent FT% is marred by his Brandon Jennings-esque FG% in 12-13 but is improving (.427 in his last five).  He’s had some uptick in his other stats in his last five as well, averaging 3.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists.  Right now,  he’ll get you buckets.
Spencer Hawes: Anybody Remember Mike Gminski?
Spencer Hawes (C/PF, Sixers)  Hawes bears a strong resemblance to this guy, A Sixers legend. The big man is on a tear lately averaging 16.3 points, 7.7 boards and 3.0 dishes over his last three as he continues to get minutes off the bench in place of Andrew Bynum, who should return sometime after the All-Star break).   He will likely stay on the bench but is only owned in 44% of ESPN leagues and 48% of Yahoo leagues.  He’s a big that doesn’t get rebounds commensurate with his height but can shoot the occasional three and passes better than many big men.
One guy who does rebound is the rookie from Ohio State, Jared Sullinger (PF, Celtics) who has added a toughness on the glass not seen since Kendrick Perkins.  Even though the short C’s are in freefall, Sully was back at it again against the Cavaliers grabbing 10 and adding a dozen points.  He is more of a one-category helper at this point, but potential is there.  He’s owned in 12% in ESPN leagues and rising.
Shannon Brown (SG, Suns)  has been heating up for an otherwise cold Phoenix Suns squad averaging 14.7 points and 2.7 steals in his last six games.  While he’s getting 25-30 minutes of grind like this, Brown can knock down threes and sprinkle in some rebounds and dishes.  His only limiting factor is that he only has shooting guard eligibility but if you have had enough of Ben Gordon’s lack of fantasy multi-category usefulness, and depending on your league values steals, Brown may be able to do something for you right now.
The New Lakers: 8th Seed or Bust, But Clark Will Get Some Grind
Another historically great team in a bit of a slump are the crappy Los Angeles Lakers, who have lost 9 of their last 11.  They’re old, slow and grumpy (Dwight Howard) and they aren’t helped by a coach (Mike D’Antoni) whose philosophies are a poor fit for the current roster.  There is fantasy help on this roster for our concerns, however, in the form of Earl Clark (PF/SF Lakers) the Lakers new starting power forward.  In his last seven games, five of them starts, Clark has averaged 11.9 points, 10.0 rebounds and 2.6 assists.  In case you were wondering, Pau Gasol now comes off the bench to back up the grumpy Howard.  It’s going to continue to be a long season in Lakerland, but Clark should continue to gets lots of run for your fantasy squad.

Wednesday, January 23, 2013

Fantasy Hockey Week 2: Short Season Surprises


Now that we are a weekend in the hockey season and you, dear owner, have gotten a taste of who should start and who should cool their heels on your bench for the time being, let’s review the guys who are likely still out there on the wire.
Conacher: The Latest in a Line of Greatness?
Cory Conacher (C/ LW, Lightning)  Excellent family hockey lineage aside (his distant cousins, Charlie, Roy and Lionel Conacher are all hockey hall-of-famers, this undrafted rookie might be the Vlad Tarasenko (i.e, a scalding hot add) of this week.  In Tuesday’s win over Carolina, he scored his second goal of the season and has points in all three games this year.  This Tampa Bay outfit is going to score a ton of goals this year, already netting 13—good for second in the NHL—and Conacher figures to be in the thick of it all year.  He’s shown palpable chemistry with Teddy Prucell and Vinny Lecavalier and has dual C/ LW eligibility at least in Yahoo.  Don’t miss out on him- he’s going to gone off the wire “Lightning” quick.
Kovalev the Greybeard Fitting in Well in Florida
Alex Kovalev (RW, Panthers) Perfect time to grab the veteran off the waiver wire as he is unowned in the majority of standard leagues.  So far this season Kovalev has shown good chemistry with super rookie Jonathan Huberdeau, leading the team in assists (2).  He’s owned in about 25% of ESPN leagues and less than half that in Yahoo.
The St. Louis Blues look like they are going to give a lot of teams the blues this season, especially on defense where the Blues look to continue their offensive arsenal from last year.  So far in this young season they are tied for third in the league with Anaheim in goals (12).  Chris Stewart and Vlad Tarasenko were recommendations last week and this week its Andy McDonald (C/LW, Blues) who has scored in all three games this season and has dual eligibility in some leagues.  He’s owned plenty in ESPN leagues, but in less than a third in Yahoo.  Check the waivers for this guy.  He'll be in involved in a bunch of goal-scoring in this short year.
Bobrosvky: Beast In The Crease?
When trudging the wire for would-be fantasy stoppers in the crease, you may still be able to grab under-the-radar goalie Sergei Bobrovsky ( G, Blue Jackets).  On Monday against Detroit he saved 39 of 42 shots, but still loss in the shootout.  He has stopped 71 out of 76 in his first two. The former Flyers goalie is looking to improve over a poor season last year (.899 SV%, 3.02 GAA for Philadelphia) and was certainly an unheralded acquisition.  He appears to be an upgrade over Steve Mason for the Jackets; this means if he continues his .934 and 2.31 GAA he could be a valuable fantasy asset.  He may be still on waivers in your league.
Daniel Winnik ( LW, Ducks) -  Winnik has already scored four goals this year and his career high is only eleven so it may be prudent to ride the wave with realistic expectations, i.e. short-term ones.  If youngsters in Anaheim aren’t ready to shoulder the offensive load on the scoring line, Winnik is the default choice for that line.  He would be playing with Teemu Selanne on the second line which is manna for fantasy usefulness.  He’s getting grabbed quickly but is still unowned in three-fourths of ESPN and Yahoo leagues.

Sunday, January 20, 2013

Fantasy Hockey Week 1 - Desire the Wire With Vlad Tarasenko


The fantasy hockey season is finally back! Granted you’ve already likely drafted your fantasy hockey squad for 2013; the season opened on Saturday.  There are a few guys who made have made themselves surprisingly fantasy relevant based on just the first one or two games that made make a Week 1 waiver wire add necessary.  We’ll explore them here:

Tasasenko: Russian For "Scoring Goals Easily"
Tasasenko: Russian For "Scoring Goals Easily"
Vladimir Tarasenko (RW, Blues)  The former first-round pick had a dazzling debut in his first game for the Blues.  Owners tend to take notice when you score twice in your first NHL start and that’s exactly what Tasasenko did helping St. Louis defeat the Detroit Red Wings on the season opener.  The young Russian has plenty of upside and word on the street is he could lead the Blues in scoring.  He dominated the KHL at the tender age of 19; his defense is the only that could affect his playing time.   A special player and he’s the hottest add right now in fantasy hockey.  Get him.

Also scoring two goals (one on power play) in the Blues dominant shutout of the Red Wings was Chris Stewart (RW, Blues) on five shots Saturday night.  Stewart reportedly dedicated his offseason to reconditioning thus increasing his speed on his skates, but time will tell.  Of course, being on of the most prolific offense in the NHL means that being on the Blues third line is probably equivalent to most second lines in the NHL.  He’s owned in 10% of standard leagues.

Zajac Attack
Zajac Attack
A good bet for scoring could come in the form of talented but oft-injured Travis Zajac (C, Devils)Limited to a handful of games the last couple of years, he reminded us all of his talent and fantasy usefulness during the Devils Stanley Cup run in 2012.  New Jersey seems to believe in him and you should too, even if he is only currently owned in 40% of standard leagues.  Reason number one: he signed an 8-year, $46 million dollar contract with New Jersey in the offseason not to be on the second line.   Reason number two: Although he’s without star Zach Parise (signed with Minnesota) he still lines up with marksman Ilya Kovalchuk.  Fellow center Adam Henrique is still there so it bears monitoring early on.

Jagr the Facilitator
Jagr the Facilitator?

Jaromir Jagr (RW, Stars) Probably owned in most leagues) but add rate is jumping after yesterday’s opener. The grizzly veteran (aged 40) can still get it done and be fantasy relevant this year.  He scored 4 points against Phoenix in Dallas’s opener; he scored only 19 goals and only 54 points as a Flyer all of last year.  He has potential this season with center Jamie Benn and Loui Eriksson to get pack to a point average a game—something savvy fantasy owners will capitalize on.  He will likely excel more as a facilitator then a pure goal scorer this year.

There may be some goaltender help for  accidental auto-pick hockey victims, or real deep leagues in the form of Toronto’s Ben Scrivens (G, Maple Leafs)  Owned in less than 5% of fantasy hockey standard leagues, Scrivens saved 21 shots in a scrappy 2-1 win against the Habs.  He’ll face competition from struggling incumbent James Reimer but it’s a situation to monitor. Reimer isn’t too far removed from promising fantasy goalie himself and there are the trade rumors swirling with Roberto Luongo.  It’s a deep situation to monitor but keep in mind Scrivens looked right at home in the crease, albeit against the offensively-challenged Canadiens.

Thursday, January 17, 2013

Fantasy Basketball Week 13: Amir Coincidence?


Johnson: Don't Get Caught Up in The Raptor
Last week when we perusing alternatives for Anderson Varejao and Kevin Love, two injured bigs, I’ll admit we were starting to see signs of Amir Johnson (PF/C, Raptors) breakthrough into fantasy usability in Week 12 --but now there’s a full bum rush to add the guy.  He has seen one of the biggest jumps in the 2012-13 fantasy basketball season, with an add rate at 61% clip in Week 13 in ESPN standard leagues.  The real catalyst for Amir was a 22 point, 14 rebound game against the Bucks that also saw him chip in 4 dimes, 3 steals and 2 blocks for 43 standard points.  In his last five games he’s averaged 17.6 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.8 blocks a game while shooting a blistering 64% from the field and 75% from the charity stripe.  His minutes averaged over the last five games span (35.8) indicate he is clearly taking run away from someone in the future.  The Raptors have Andrea Bargnani, Ed Davis and Johnson now to help at the “4”; an enviable problem.
Throw the Alley-Oop to Al-Farouq
Al-Farouq Aminu   (SF, Hornets) is a “3” who has been dominating the boards since the New Year like a "4". He will also contribute steals and blocks, as a unique type of small forward that may pair well with a number of “4”’s who score but don’t rebound necessarily well. His field goal percentage is steadily climbing this season and stands at 47%.   Since January 5th he’s averaged fantasy-relevant numbers: 7.9 points, 10.6 boards, 1.9 steals. His add rate is 15% this week. Time to take a look, at least.
Still Dre Day?
Old habits die hard with Denver’s Andre Miller (PG, Nuggets).  Throughout his tenure in the league the wily but three-point-range-lacking, Miller has made a career of helping fantasy squads in assists, steals, free throw % as well as great shooting percentages sans from downtown.  He’s not getting thirty minutes anymore coming off the Nugget bench, but his add rate is up 15-20% in some leagues because of injuries to point guards like Chris Paul.  He’s going to rebound better than most of your point guards, and in his last five has averaged 9.6 points, 6.4 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1 steal.  His teammate, the ever-enigmatic Wilson Chandler is getting eased back into the swingman rotation for the Nuggets, who have great depth there, scored 13 and 14 with 6 boards in two games after a two month hiatus due to injury. Someone to monitor surely,  as swingmen like Chandler (and like I say seemingly every post) are in great demand for fantasy basketball owners.
No need to split hairs over Tiago Splitter (PF/C, Spurs) He has been seeing more grind for the Spurs lately and isn’t a premier rebounder or anything but he is scoring and shooting well for a big man.  After starting only 8 out of 119 games played in the last two season in 2012-13 he’s started 19 out of 41 for a veteran San Antonio Spurs squad that will continue to rest their older players.
Chris Paul’s backup Eric Bledsoe (PG, Clippers) has also seen his add rate jump due to Paul’s Day-to-Day status.  He’s been added at a 20-25% rate in standard leagues this week.  He’s shooting 47% from the field from the season and 36% from downtown.  His value is tied toward CP3’s injury status in any case.  He can help in steals, and had six of them in a game recently (against Celtics).

Saturday, January 12, 2013

Under-The-Radar Fantasy Basketball MVP’s as of Week 12



Who has outperformed their draft slots so far?  With more than a third of the season in the books, let’s take a look  at guys that will begin more and more to become household names among basketball fans in general.   As a savvy fantasy owner, you would do well to consider these guys before your league’s trade deadline as well.  Keep in mind many leagues offer multi-position eligibility, but since some are more restrictive in this area, we tried to go with guys who were "true" 1s, 2s, and 3s, etc.

POINT GUARD
License to Lillard
License to Lillard
Damian Lillard  (Blazers) gained momentum with a strong summer but was still typically picked in sixth and seventh rounds in many leagues in October. His ROY season is making owners who did their homework look mighty smart. In case you didn’t know Lillard is leading the NBA in pick and roll points (7.8).  He’s been particularly nice the last five games averaging 19.2 points, 7.2 assists, and 4.2 boards a game, shooting 47% and 38% from downtown.  He’s just scratching the surface of his talent.

Honorable Mention: Jrue Holiday  (Sixers) While expectations were raised for Kyrie Irving and Stephen Curry, two top five “1”s in fantasy right now, no one could have foreseen the growth by Sixers point-guard Jrue Holiday, as he’s averaging Chris Paul-type numbers in the big three categories; 18.3 ppg, 8.8 apg and 4.2 rpg.  The assists are way up which is typically what we look to our “1’s” to provide. He was drafted anywhere from 4th-7th round, and the field of really good fantasy point guards has seemingly expanded to 10.  He’s trending up.

SHOOTING GUARD 
Houston's Harden And Soul
Houston's "Harden" Soul
James Harden, (Rockets) A late off-season deal rocketed Harden from third option on a great Oklahoma City team to first option on a young an under-the-radar Rockets team. People expected James Harden to get more shot attempts but they couldn’t have predicted that as of January 12, average more points than LeBron James!  He just recently broke a fourteen game streak of scoring 25+ and has upped his assists from last year (5.3 apg).  He’s a legit MVP candidate  who is averaging nearly two steals a game and shooting 35% from downtown.  Not bad for someone typically drafted in the third round in most drafts in October.

Honorable Mention:  J.R Smith  (Knicks) J.R has held down the bench for the Atlantic Division-leading Knickerbockers all season with 17.0 ppg, 5.1 rpg and nearly three dishes per contest.  A leading sixth-man candidate and was drafted in the double-digit rounds in most leagues.

SMALL FORWARD
By George, He's Got IT
Nicolas Batum (Blazers) Another key piece of the most talented young squad in the league, Portland, Batum was not a stranger to experienced owners heading in to this season, typically drafted by the eighth rounds in October.  By November, a lot of owners were still unaware of the St. Nick’s ability to deliver holiday gifts in all categories.  Fact: Batum and Kevin Durant are the only two small forwards to average 15 points and a block and a steal per game.
Honorable Mention: Paul George, (Pacers) Formerly known as a defensive stopper, his game has blossomed to the tune of 16.9 ppg, 7.0 rpg, and 3.7 apg.  A top ten performer at an otherwise thin position.

POWER FORWARD

Zach Randolph (Grizzlies) Big Z-Bo has provided fantasy owners consistent production at the power forward position where double-doubles are typically rewarded more to varying degrees.  With Kevin Love in and out of the injury report, the amount of true fours that can get you 15 and 10 a night are scarce.   A rejuvenated Randolph has been a big help to the suddenly scary Memphis Grizzlies. He’s shooting .504 from the field so far in 2012-13 to go with 16.9 points and 12.0 rebounds a game. He could have been had in the seventh round in most drafts prior to the season.
Honorable Mention: David West  (Pacers) Typically undrafted, D-West has really picked up the scoring load for the Pacers in the absence of Danny Granger.  He’s a bit of a slump lately.

CENTER
Vucevic: Franchise Record 29 Rebounds against Heat on NYE
Vucevic: Franchise Record 29 Rebounds against Heat on NYE
If the Cavaliers Anderson Varejao wasn’t injured recently he’s a shoo-in for under-the-radar fantasy basketball MVP in the whole league.  But since he’s out at a time when fantasy is just starting to get going, we’ll go with Orlando’s center Nikola VucevicVucevic wasn’t on anyone’s radar until recently and now is completely owned in most leagues. Reason? He’s had 13 or more boards in 14 games, including 29 rebounds to go with 20 points on New Year’s Eve against the world champion Miami Heat.  He’s now scoring more and playing more and out of the last 14 games he’s played- only three has he not had a double-double.

Honorable Mention:  Nikola Pekovic,  (T-Wolves) Two Nikolases? Indeed, although unlike Vucevic, Pekovic was drafted in the eight-to-tenth rounds in most leagues; he’s a little less under the radar. He’s more of a scorer (16.3 in 2012-13) than his Orlando namesake, but will likely rebound more with Kevin Love out until March. Perhaps blocks will increase as well.

Fantasy Basketball Week 11: Love and Varejao Out With Injury.. How Will Your Squad Rebound (Literally)?


If you have been living under rock for the last few days, or paying attention to the upcoming fantasy hockey season finally looking to get underway, two big-time fantasy basketball redwoods won’t be seeing the hardwood for awhile.  Anderson Varejao, who has been playing at an All-NBA pace so far (14.1, 14.4, and 3.4) split his right quadriceps and won’t be playing until early March.  The main recipients of his minutes will likely be Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller.  Kevin Love, the Minnesota double-double machine, will undergo surgery on his hand and will be out 8-10 weeks as well.  Their ownership rates are falling rapidly as we speak. For optimists, these players still may not be worth stashing on your bench; it will be necessary to grab some double-double firepower off the wire.
Henson: Regime Change = Double-Doubles?
Henson: Regime Change = Double-Doubles?
Not stuck being a muppet on Scott Skiles bench, John Henson (PF, Bucks) has shown flashes of double-double dependability averaging 10.8 points and 10.8 rebounds in 22.6 minutes per game.  He also has shot 55% and chipped in 1.4 blocks in those same five contests which are big-man categories.  It will be interesting to see how new Bucks leadership divides time between him, Larry Sanders, Ekpe Udoh and Sam Dalembert.  The Bucks at 18-16, fired coach Scott Skiles anyway, so they clearly think they can do better with an identity change, perhaps, on offense. If Kevin Love was holding your squad down in big man categories, he may be worth a roster add. Henson has an outrageous wingspan at 6’11” and can shoot 10-15 feet out pretty reliably.  He can help you with rebounds right now.
No Love; Williams Time to Shine?
No Love; Williams's Time to Shine?

Of course, the biggest fantasy benefactor to Kevin Love’s injury may be on the Minnesota Timberwolves team and is owned in, like ten percent of leagues; that being Derrick Williams (PF, T-Wolves) who put together 14 and 11 Wednesday night against the Thunder in 28 minutes.  Williams, at 6’8” and 241 is a different type of “4” then Love is; he won’t clean glass as consistently but is a better shooter from downtown (.393) in 2012.  The former number two pick is more offensively-minded as the threes suggest which makes him attractive for fantasy squads lacking at that category.

Interestingly, enough Kevin Love’s replacement at power forward as a starter is Dante Cunningham (PF, T-Wolves) not Derrick Williams.  Cunningham is the more defensive-minded of the two Love replacements but will need to score more eventually.  In the last five games, he’s actually logged the lionshare of minutes averaging 29.4.  In those nearly 30 minutes of run, he’s averaged 6.6 boards and 6.0 blocks.  He may be just scratching the surface of his talent; he has had two or three games where he contributed healthily to multiple categories.

The Houston Rockets Patrick Patterson is back from injury so if he’s waving on waiver wire, be advised he’s back getting decent run.  This particular blurb is more about his teammate, Carlos Delfino (SG/SF, Rockets) who is thriving in the Rockets quick strike attack.   Delfino is as streaky as they get; but he is shooting a career high from downtown this year, and again, plays small forward in fantasy basketball.  The position is a revolving door for most fantasy owners in terms of bench depth.  Since New Year’s Eve, Delfino has averaged 13.8 points, 3.3 rebounds and 2.8 assists a game while going 21 for 37 (.568) from downtown.  In fact Delfino, can get hot in a hurry and is averaging 26.5 minutes since 12/31.  If your team needs “3” help, both from downtown and small forward, Delfino is a definite add.

Friday, January 4, 2013

Fantasy Basketball Week 10: Two Kings Feat. Ross (Terrence, That Is)


Happy New Year!! 2013 is the season for creating new opportunities to win money in fantasy sports! We've been gone for a minute but we're back with the website! With fantasy football season over and hockey’s season yet to start we can focus a lot more on the association and getting some hard cash from the hardwood. Let’s see whose making a fantasy impact on the waiver wire.
Losing Isaiah? Defenses Seem to be Lately
Isaiah Thomas (PG, Kings) – The Kings second-year point guard named after a legend has seen an increase in minutes since incumbent point guard Aaron Brooks missed time with an injury.  Brooks return is eminent but all signs point to Thomas retaining the starter’s role in this timeshare.  Thomas is a nice bench addition to your roster in any case and has more scoring upside than Brooks and will help your team in threes (35.6% on the season).  Sacramento has plenty of injuries in its backcourt (Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton) so there’s minutes for both.  In the last eleven games Thomas has averaged 14.2 points, 3.4 assists and 1.8 treys, all while shooting 53 for 115 from the field (46.1%).  Again he doesn’t rack up great assists or steals but is growing into the facilitator role on offense and a better pickpocket on defense (a steal in six straight).
Continuing To Go Upstream
Another beneficiary of minutes due to Tyreke Evans and Marcus Thornton would be the artist formerly known as John Salmons (SG/SF, Kings) who has flourished in the increase of minutes in the last eight games averaging 13 points 4.5 assists and 3.5 rebounds.  Word on road is that Evans may return Sunday after having his knee re-examined.  But as a season-long theme of a shortage of fantasy useful three’s here’s a guy who may be more useful right now than say, Vince Carter or Kawhi Leonard.  He’s not a big contributor from downtown historically but he’s 12 for 27 over those last same eight games from three-point land.
Reminding Me of Vince?
Don’t look now, but the once 4-19 Toronto Raptors are playing solid basketball lately winning 8 of 9, their only loss being a 20-point drubbing at San Antonio, the only time during the streak they’ve allowed 100 points.  High-flying first round pick Terrence Ross (SG, Raptors) is a fantasy concern for owners because he can shoot, has a gang of athleticism, and is taking more of a lead role on minutes and conversely, the offense.    Ironically, the Raptors have averaged 101 ppg all in the absence of Andrea Bargnani, their presumed best offensive threat.   Ross was the boss against the Blazers on January 2, going 6-9 from downtown and finishing with 26 points, 5 boards, 2 assists, and 2 steals.  He doesn’t get to the line much, but as these young Raptors continue to learn to share the ball, expect for Ross to have a major impact.  Fantasy-wise he could average 12-15 for the rest of the season, with three-pointers and points his major categories help.
Andre "400" as in FT%..But Still Addable!
Mr. Andre Drummond (PF/C, Pistons) has used different strokes to rule the boards averaging 10.8 boards in his last six games to go with 9.3 boards and 2.0 blocks in that same span.  Three of those contests were double-doubles further annoying your fantasy opponents.  Again Andre’s free throw shooting is an adventure to spin it positively as the big man from Mount Vernon, NY, is shooting 58% from the field and a miserable %41 from the charity stripe.  That in itself makes him a risky add but that 41% pales in comparison to some of the worst free throw shooters ever.